The 2023 MLB trade deadline has come and gone, leaving a flurry of blockbusters in its wake. Now that the dust has settled, though, it’s time for that other deadline: For most fantasy baseball leagues, now is just about the last chance you have to strike a deal that could make or break your title hopes. It’s winning time, a time to shore up any lone weaknesses or shake things up in the hopes of sparking a charge up the standings. Which players saw their teams and roles change last week, and how might that affect their fantasy production? Who should you be looking to buy or sell for the fantasy stretch run? Whose value is trending up or down?
Let’s get into it with this week’s trade value rankings. As usual, not only will we rank the top 200 players for fantasy baseball (5×5 roto), but we also break down who’s rising, who’s falling and who we recommend targeting on the trade market.
Buy
- Every time it’s seemed like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was finally set to turn the corner, he’s fallen back into another prolonged slump. The uber-talented first baseman has been among the most disappointing early-round picks of this fantasy season, with a .749 OPS since May 1. But if the team that drafted him in your league is ready to bail on the 24-year-old (or if they’re out of contention by now) you’d do wise to pounce, because Guerrero Jr. could be a league-winner down the stretch — especially in head-to-head leagues.
The Blue Jays have an exceedingly hitter-friendly stretch coming up: Starting on August 28, Toronto has 12 games against the Nationals (4.88 ERA), Rockies (5.51), Athletics (5.83) and Royals (5.19). Guerrero Jr.’s contact metrics, meanwhile, are much closer to his 48-homer campaign in 2021 than they are to the numbers he’s put up so far this season. His xwOBA is 49 points higher than his actual mark, per Statcast, suggesting that all he needs is a little better luck to turn his season around.
- This time of year is all about big swings, especially in rotisserie leagues where it can be hard to make up statistical ground after four months of compiling. That’s why, unless you’re already at the top of the standings, you’d be wise to target high-variance players — guys who come with a bit more risk but who have the ceiling to be league-winners. Which brings us to Dylan Cease: The righty has been one of the worst starters in baseball (5.40 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) since the beginning of July, continuing a frustrating follow-up to his 2022 breakout. That stretch, though, may have significantly lowered his price in your fantasy league — and it just so happens to have coincided with a fluky-high .381 BABIP.
If that number comes back to Earth, Cease could get hot, even on a go-nowhere White Sox team. And we saw last year (2.20 ERA, 227 strikeouts) what a hot Cease can do, with strikeout upside that very few arms in the game can match. If you find yourself in need of a big boost in Ks and ERA, take a big swing.
Sell
- Look, this is not an argument against Spencer Strider as a player; he’s far and away the most electric pitcher in baseball right now, and he’s likely to be the first pitcher off the board in 2024 fantasy drafts. But we’re still focused on 2023 right now, and 2023 has come down to a sprint to the finish. If you’re lucky enough to have rostered the Braves ace for the first four months of the year, chances are you already have a healthy lead in the category Strider has the most impact in: strikeouts. (And if you don’t, what in the world went wrong with the rest of your pitching staff?) Strider probably won’t help you as much as, say, an elite bat could, or anything else you might be able to get for one of the game’s premier trade chips. He’s also already eclipsed his 2022 innings limit on a Braves team that’s had the NL East under wraps for months now, raising the possibility that Atlanta eases up on him a bit over the closing weeks of the season. Obviously, if you still need the help in Ks, disregard this advice. If you have holes to patch elsewhere, though, see what you can get.
- Those of you in head-to-head leagues, look away. Those of you in rotisserie leagues, listen up: trade your closers. No, really, trade all of them, all the ones that have any sort of value on the open market at least. Closers have the widest gap in value this time of year; either you’re in desperate need of saves to hold off the teams around you, or you’re comfortably behind or in front and have no use for them at all. Either way, though, saves are just one category, and closers aren’t too likely to make a dent in your ratios or strikeouts with just a few weeks left in the year. (I’ve seen managers bench their top relievers in September, or even cut them loose onto the waiver wire.)
Finding cheap saves will be easier than ever in September, with bullpens of teams out of contention in flux and rosters expanding (and teams lower in the standings in your fantasy league neglecting the waiver wire). If you can see a decreasing need for a closer or two on the horizon, pounce now for talented players at other positions while you still can.
