A lot of good games tonight as we kick off Memorial Day Weekend. I’ll give a few bets I like on DraftKings Sportsbook that you can tail.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Phillies run line -1.5 -130
The Phillies are a damn wagon. They’re currently riding a six-game winning streak and are 9-1 over their last 10 games. They take that momentum and head to Coors Field, where the offense should thrive once again. They’ll face off against Rockies starter Ty Blach who has a 5.14 ERA with a 5.44 xERA and only a 4.2 K/9. Blach throws a ton of sinkers and that’s a pitch the Phillies have been mashing since last season. Tonight’s expected lineup has a combined .380 wOBA with a .200 ISO and just a 19% K%. In fact, four players, JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Edmundo Sosa and Cristian Pache, all have at least a .440 wOBA against sinkers thrown by a lefty since last year. The Phillies are also one of the best teams on the run line this season, going 30-23.
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
The Pick: Royals First Five Innings Run Line -0.5 +110
Ideally, if you’re backing a team on the F5 run line, the home team is the play. The get the last at bat no matter what, unlike a full game where it’s not guaranteed. That said, I like this spot for the Royals at the Trop. They’ll be starting Seth Lugo, who has been fantastic through 10 starts. He has some regression coming his way, as his 1.79 ERA differs from his xERA of 3.58, but his numbers are still really good. He’s been really tough to both sides of the plate and his road numbers are almost immaculate, posting a 0.62 ERA with a 1.83 FIP.
The Rays are starting Shawn Armstrong, which means it’s a bullpen game. Armstrong hasn’t gone more than two innings. After that, it’s looking as if they’ll see lefty Tyler Alexander. That is a plus matchup for the Royals, who are good against four seam fastballs and cutters. On the season, Alexander has been getting hit hard by righties, posting a .348 wOBA with a 5.47 FIP and 8 of the 10 home runs he’s allowed. I’m very comfortable backing the Royals on the first five run line, which they have a record of 29-20 record.
Boston Red Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick: Rafael Devers over 1.5 bases -110
You may have heard Devers was recently on a ridiculous hot streak. Hitting a home run in six straight games was quite the feat. While that streak ended, Devers has been locked in at the plate and is in a great matchup tonight. Taking on the Brewers, Devers will face Bryse Wilson. He’s a right-handed pitcher who throws three variations of fastballs, a cutter, sinker and four seamer. Devers crushes all of these and since last season has wOBA’s of .435, .433 and .368 respectively. Devers is also hitting against righties at Fenway Park very well, coming into tonight with a .391 wOBA with a 149 wRC+. I like him to go over 1.5 bases tonight, something he’s done in 19 of the 39 games he’s played.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
