Every team is in action Friday night, so we have a plethora of bets to choose from. Let’s get into what I like for tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Braves run line through first five innings -0.5 -120
Backing Max Fried doesn’t feel comfortable right now. He’s been abysmal and I’m being nice when I say that. Through two starts, he’s allowed 11 runs (10 earned) on 12 hits through just five innings of work.
Goodness.
That said, he’s facing what’s been the worst offense in the league against lefties tonight. Coming into tonight, the Marlins have a ridiculous .216 wOBA with a 32 (!) wRC+. In simpler terms, they’re slashing .173/.233/.229 through 232 plate appearances against lefties. Add in the fact that they’ll be starting Trevor Rogers, who has been struggling, and I’m prepared to back the Braves on the run line through the first five innings.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Diamondbacks moneyline -125
I like this spot for the D-Backs, at home, against the Cardinals. On the surface, Cardinals starter Steven Matz looks as if he’s gotten off to a good start! A 1.74 ERA with a 3.22 FIP is solid. BUT, it’s good to look at the advanced stats, as it paints a much more clearer picture. Matx has an xERA of 4.63, which is a BIG jump. Essentially, this tells us that Matz has been getting lucky and defensively, the Cardinals have bailed him out and the damage could be much more. The Diamondbacks have one of the best offenses against lefties and have a .361 wOBA (2nd), a 123 wRC+ (6th) and just a 14.7% K% (28th). They make a ton of contact and Matz is a contact pitcher. I think they jump on him early and cruise to a victory.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox
The Pick: 1st strikeout thrown – Andrew Abbott +245
This is worth a small play, not a full unit. DraftKings Sportsbook has H2H bets and this one caught my eye. Yes, Chris Flexen will have the first crack at earning a strikeout as the Reds will hit first with the White Sox as the home team. HOWEVER, Flexen is NOT a strikeout pitcher. Through 10.2 innings he has just five strikeouts recorded this season, giving him a K/9 of 4.2. Flexen has NEVER been a big strikout guy and throughout his career has a 6.2 K/9.
Abbott has been a strikeout pitcher. His K/9 is just under 7 so far but last season with over 100 innings under his belt had a K/9 of 9.8, which averages over a batter per inning. Currently, the White Sox have the highest K% in the league against lefties at 31%. Abbott is a fastball pitcher by nature, throwing that pitch more than half the time. Against lefties, the White Sox currently own a 27% K%. With all this in mind, I think this is worth a small play.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
