The Major League Baseball season is a month old. The 2024 season stats can be trusted. Most of our questions have been answered. It’s time to take the stats and attack the books. The weekend DK Network MLB Best Bets Article is hot. It’s hit five of the last six picks. Let’s keep it rolling on Saturday.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
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Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Cal Raleigh over 0.5 Home Runs (+330)
Seattle started slow but has since since turned the ship around. The Mariners are hitting and a trip to Coors Field is perfect for further boosting their numbers. The number boost for our focus is home runs. Rockies SP Dakota Hudson has been serviceable to start the season (4.52 ERA), but an implosion is coming. He’s been lucky. His luck started to run out in his last start (five earned runs). His groundball rate is 52.7%, but his BABIP was under .240 in two of his three starts — regression is coming. His K/9 is 5.7 and his BB/9 is 3.1 — regression is coming. Only one of his starts was at Coors. Say it again, regression is coming. In his last start, he allowed three Barrels and nine HardHits.
Cal Raleigh is primed for an explosion. His 2024 stats aren’t very appealing — .313 wOBA and .170 ISO. The advanced stats tell a different tale. He has a HardHit in nearly every game (16 for a 47.1% HardHit%). In the last four games, his average Launch Angles were 28.0, 35.8, 53.7 and 43.5°. Power and elevation are the perfect combo for Colorado’s elevation.
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Pick: Royals vs. Orioles Under 7.5 Runs (-105)
It’s a good old-fashioned pitchers’ duel. Both offenses are strong but the starters are stronger. In truth, the offenses aren’t that great, or at least in this matchup. The Royals face a proven All-Star and the Orioles can’t hit left-handed pitching. Baltimore’s left-handed heavy lineup is no longer the worst in the league against southpaws. They have improved to average, but that’s likely as good as it gets. Against elite lefties, the lineup’s potency lowers.
Corbin Burnes is the same stud in his new city. He posted six elite seasons of stats in the hitter’s park in Milwaukee. He’s 29 and in his prime. The big stage of the AL East awaits. A second Cy Young is in his sights. Cole Ragans hasn’t won this season. That’s because he does not get run support (2.70 R/9). It’s not his fault because he does not allow run support (3.01 xFIP, 0.4 HR/9, 11.2 K/9 and an 87% strand rate). Last but not least, Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City is the toughest ballpark to hit a home run in Major League Baseball.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland Athletics
The Pick: Cleveland Guardian -1.5 Runs (+130)
Terry Francona is gone. This is a new Guardians. The A’s are the same A’s. Cleveland is crushing lefties — .349 wOBA and 132 wRC+. They get a southpaw on Saturday, and it’s a bad one. Alex Wood appears to be past his prime. In his four starts, he has surrendered 15 runs (5.51 xFIP). He was never a strikeout pitcher, but now his walks are up — almost twice his career average. Wood is a groundball pitcher. At his best, he generated a groundball 50% of the time. His groundball rate is a career-low 32.1% to start 2024.
The Guardians’ lineup doesn’t profile well. No one stands out. This isn’t a sexy roster. It’s a baseball team. Cleveland truly represents Cleveland. This is a blue-collar team. There’s no flash — no stars. They’re grinders putting in nine innings of quality at-bats. This team doesn’t hit the long ball nor does it rely on the long ball. They are not the most plate-disciplined team. Cleveland does not have elite speed. Their calling card is that they do everything well. It’s hard to beat teams that do not have a weakness. It’s hard to keep this type of team off of the scoreboard.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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