The NFL season is flying by and every game from here on out will carry some additional weight as the playoffs inch closer. This is especially the case for the Week 11 Sunday Night Football matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers.
Both these teams hold postseason aspirations but have not gotten off to the exact start they desired. The Chargers have had an easier time finding their footing and enter this game with a 6-3 record. They have found their identity as a defensive-minded team and have allowed the fewest points of any team in the league. Justin Herbert has also seen an expanded role in recent weeks and has shown off his impressive arm strength. The Chargers also enter this game on a three-game winning streak.
The Bengals will have a bit more urgency in this game. They enter with a 4-6 record and have their backs against the wall from a postseason perspective. Cincinnati is a better team than their record shows but with both the Steelers and Ravens entering the week with seven wins which makes the playoff outlook difficult. The AFC North will be among the tightest divisional races in the league. While they will not be mathematically ruled out yet, this is a must-win for the Bengals.
The Chargers enter this game as one-point favorites in the matchup and -118 on the Moneyline. The Bengals are -102 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 48.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Sunday Night clash.
Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)
The Chargers made a clear effort to establish the running game and lean on their defense for success in the early weeks. Justin Herbert was limited to 20 or fewer pass attempts in two of the first three weeks and did not throw for more than 179 passing yards through the opening four weeks. The Chargers have opened up their offense since this point.
Starting in Week 5, Herbert has thrown the ball 27+ times in all but one game. He threw for 237 or more passing yards in every game except last week. On the season overall, Herbert is averaging 209.9 passing yards per game which is well below his career average of 269.2 passing yards.
Looking at his touchdown production, Herbert has thrown just 11 total touchdowns. However, he has thrown for five touchdowns across the past three weeks throwing for over 1.5 touchdowns in two of these three matchups. This is a great opportunity to continue this against a poor Bengals defense. On the season Cincinnati ranks 26th in points allowed, 23rd in yards given up, and 25th in passing touchdowns conceded. They have given up 17 total passing touchdowns this season. With Herbert playing better and facing a struggling defense, count on the Chargers to air it out and punch it in through the air twice.
Ladd McConkey Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The biggest beneficiary of the Chargers’ increased commitment to the passing game has been Ladd McConkey. The rookie pass catcher has established himself as the top option on the team and tallied 37 receptions for 492 yards and four touchdowns this season. McConkey has tallied at least two receptions in every game and has recorded over 58.5 receiving yards in two of the past three weeks.
As the Chargers continue to open up the passing game, expect McConkey’s importance to continue growing. This is especially the case with the porous Bengals’ defense. Cincinnati ranks 23rd in passing yards allowed and has given up 220 or more passing yards in six of the 10 games.
Expect Los Angeles to take their chances attacking through the air and for McConkey to be at the epicenter of the attack. While the Georgia product has only eclipsed 58.5 yards three times so far this season, his outlook has been much more positive in recent weeks. His best days are still ahead and don’t be surprised if this ranks among his best performances at the NFL level thus far.
Tee Higgins Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Injuries have been the story of Tee Higgins’ season far more than anyone would like to be the case. The 25-year-old missed the first two games of the season due to a hamstring injury, returned for five games, and then missed the previous three games due to a quad issue. Higgins is expected to return to the field tonight.
When he has been on the field this season, Higgins has looked like himself. Across five games he has tallied 29 receptions for 341 yards and three touchdowns. He has averaged 68.2 receiving yards per game which is about on par with the 63.8 receiving yards he has averaged throughout his career.
Los Angeles has a stingy defense that has limited opponents to the sixth overall yards and ninth fewest passing yards. However, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will be the most dynamic pass-catching duo they have faced this season and could put a dent in this impressive statistical output. Higgins has had over 56.5 receiving yards in four of the five games he has played this season and has been targeted at least six times in each game. He will receive the necessary volume of targets to be effective and can be counted on to reach his receiving prop for the fifth time this season.
Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (-105)
You will not find an NFL wide receiver who has played as well as Ja’Marr Chase has this season. The star receiver is leading the NFL in receptions and receiving yards and is tied for the most receiving touchdowns. Overall he has produced 66 catches for 981 yards and 10 touchdowns entering the week.
While the Chargers’ defense is legitimate, Chase will be the best wide receiver they have faced by a notable margin. The three-time Pro Bowler is the Bengals’ best option to score and is responsible for 10 of the Bengals’ 32 touchdowns on the season. Chase is capable of taking any catch for a score and is still the top target in red zone opportunities.
He has made his way into the end zone in six of the last eight games after failing to score a touchdown in the first two games. Getting -105 odds for a touchdown is great value for the player that will be at the forefront of the Bengals game plan.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
