Week 11’s Sunday Night Football matchup will be taking place between the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals. Both these teams hold playoff aspirations but did not get off to the ideal start. This game will play a major role in shaping the playoff picture with Cincinnati especially having little room for error following its 4-6 start.
The Chargers enter this game as 1.5-point favorites and -122 on the moneyline. The Bengals are considered +102 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 48 points.
Joe Burrow Prop Bets
DraftKings Sportsbook has Joe Burrow’s props set at o/u 265.5 passing yards, o/u 1.5 passing touchdowns, 36.5 pass attempts, 9.5 rushing yards, and holds +475 odds of an anytime touchdown.
While the Bengals do not have the record they desire, it has not been due to a lack of production from Joe Burrow. The star quarterback leads the NFL in total passing yards and is tied with Baker Mayfield for the most passing touchdowns with 24 on the season. The LSU product is throwing for an average of 267.5 passing yards per game, but has thrown for over 265.5 passing yards in just four of the 10 games.
Burrow has thrown for over 1.5 touchdowns in seven of the 10 games and has only been held without a passing touchdown in two games. He also has rushed the ball at least once in every game. The Pro Bowl quarterback is averaging 12.3 rushing yards per game and tallied as many as 55 rushing yards in a game this year. Burrow has just one total rushing touchdown.
This will be a difficult matchup for Cincinnati as the Chargers have established themselves as a defensive-minded team. Los Angeles has allowed the fewest points of any team in the NFL this season. They also rank sixth in yards allowed, ninth in passing yards allowed, and eighth in passing touchdowns.
As great as Burrow is and has been, this will be the toughest defense he has faced this season. Even while leading the league in passing yards, Burrow has fallen short of this passing prop number in six of the 10 games. He averaged just 230.9 passing yards per game last year so there should not be much of an uptick expected.
Buckle up for this to be a tough, defensive game in which the Chargers can assert themselves. Burrow will come ready to play, but it will take some outlier plays that lead to extra yards to reach this tally through the air. While a long touchdown to Ja’Marr Chase is never completely off the table, this prop line is a bit too ambitious for my liking.
The Pick: Under 265.5 Passing Yards
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
