Only a few games are on the card today, with most taking place this afternoon. Here are a couple of bets I like to tail.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros
The Pick: Royals run line through first five innings +0.5 -125
We have two pitchers that have pitched vastly different to start the season. Hunter Brown goes for the Astros today with his 6.43 ERA, a 5.82 xERA and a 7.7 BB/9 through seven innings of work. Brown has essentially picked up where he left off last season, as he ended the second-half with a 6.57 ERA, a .378 wOBA and 17 of the 26 home runs he allowed. The Royals offense has been cooking lately, averaging five runs per game over the last five games, including 15 in this series against the Astros.
The Royals will be starting Brady Singer, who’s been great in 13.1 innings. Singer has a 0.68 ERA with a 2.43 xERA, a 9.4 K/9 and a 1.3 BB/9. He’s gone into the seventh inning in both of his starts and has looked good in the process. This will be his toughest matchup to date but with the way Brown has been pitching, I’d expect this to lean in favor of the Royals through the first five innings.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
The Pick: Pirates team total over 3.5 runs -125
The Pirates have been smashing lefties to start the year. Through 165 plate appearances, they boast a .375 wOBA and a 139 wRC+. One of the biggest issues for Ranger Suarez last year was pitching at home. His numbers were dramatically different and home was not where the heart was for the Phillies pitcher. He had a 5.45 ERA with a .327 wOBA and nine of the 13 home runs he allowed. I was bit surprised to see the team total at 3.5 runs, as I expected 4.5 when I saw the matchup. Nonetheless, I’ll take the 3.5 runs for the Pirates today on the road.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
