Both of these teams put up 41 points in Week 9 and, when they met in Week 5, there were a cornucopia of points. The Ravens emerged the 41-38 victors in overtime, racking up 520 yards of total offense. The Bengals weren’t so shabby themselves, with 442 yards of offense. Both teams averaged 6.8 yards per play.
But often, the second game between division rivals is lower scoring. Not always, but enough to be cognizant.
Last season, BAL won 27-24 in the first meeting. Two months later, BAL won 34-20. The teams met twice in January, with CIN winning both, 27-16 and 24-17. Do with that information what you will.
The Ravens are a strange, fickle team. On most weeks, they look like world beaters, and the odds-on favorite to win it all. Then they go out and lose to the Raiders and Browns. Shrug.
We talkin’ bout fickle? That’s the Bengals in a nutshell. On any given Sunday, they can beat the best of them. In the opener, they lost to the Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots, 16-10.
The Ravens rushing attack has the third-highest Rush EPA, as Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry form one of the most potent backfield duos in the league. The Bengals rush defense has allowed the fifth-highest Rush EPA. 1+1=2.
The Bengals have the ninth-lowest Rush EPA, but the Ravens have the fourth-best run defense. The path of least resistance is very clear for Cincinnati.
The Bengals passing attack is fourth-best in Pass EPA. The Ravens have been a pass funnel, allowing the seventh-highest Pass EPA
The Ravens are second-best in Pass EPA! Baltimore has one of the most balanced offenses in the league.
DraftKings Sportsbook has BAL -6 at home with the game total at a whopping 53.5.
As for Wednesday’s injury report, TE Isaiah Likely is out. WR Tee Higgins (quad) is doubtful. Stay informed on the most recent updates at DK LIVE.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (CIN @ BAL)
Captain’s Picks
Lamar Jackson ($17,100 CP): Jackson has the highest floor/ceiling combo in the game. He does it with his arm. He does it with his legs. He jumps over tall buildings while flashing a smile for the camera. On the season, Jackson has put up at least 22 FPTS in all but one game. That was the one in which the Ravens inexplicably lost to the Raiders and Jackson finished with 17.38 FPTS. He’s gone for over 35 FPTS twice and, in the last meeting with the Bengals, Jackson finished with a season-high 37.42 FPTS. I’m not expecting a similar ceiling performance, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he did. Regardless, if the Ravens put up points, Jackson will likely be a big reason why.
UTIL Plays
Joe Burrow ($10,400): The Bengals can’t run and the Ravens don’t allow teams to run. The Ravens are expected to score a ton of points. The game plan and script seem very transparent. Set, hut, hut, hike to Burrow over and over and over again. The range of outcomes is much wider for Burrow than with Jackson because of the lack of rushing prowess. The ceiling is similar, though. Burrow has also gone for over 30 FPTS twice this season. In that Week 5 game against the Ravens, he finished with 37.78 FPTS. This game has a whopping total of 53.5, so points are expected to be scored. While Derrick Henry could impinge upon the fantasy prospects of Jackson, if the Bengals are scoring points, it’s highly likely that they will come from the arm of Burrow.
Drew Sample ($2,600): We need value and Sample seems decent. I wish the price was cheaper, but we play the cards that are dealt. Sample had a 76% snap share in Week 9 and received four targets, with one in the red zone. Mike Gesicki is more of the pass catcher, and he is going to be involved, but the Bengals have been utilizing more two-tight-end sets and Erick All Jr. is out, so that could provide more opportunities for Sample.
Andre Iosivas ($3,400): Iosivas is a physical marvel and played 91% of the snaps last week. He only received four targets, though. He did receive a red zone look. Iosivas is cheap and I’d like to pepper all the Burrow targets since that is how the Bengals are most likely to move the ball and score points.
Fades
Ja’Marr Chase ($10,800): Chase is no doubt one of the best wide receivers in the league and he can break any slate, as he did in Week 5 against the Ravens, catching 10 of 12 targets for 193 yards and two touchdowns. I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that the Ravens defense is going to pay him extra attention, especially with Tee Higgins doubtful. Over the last four games, Chase has scored 11.3, 20.4, 17.6 and 12.2 FPTS. There’s a good chance that he has a decent game, but not a “had-to-have it” game. The fade of Chase correlates to the Iosivas recommendation.
THE OUTCOME
I think points will be scored in this one, just not as many as in Week 5. Adjustments will be made and a stop here, and a stop there, could inhibit the ball from rolling downhill as it did in Week 5. That said, the Ravens have a little too much juice for the Bengals.
Final Score: Ravens 30, Bengals 24
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (CIN @ BAL)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
