After a dizzying few days, the dust from the 2023 trade deadline has finally started to settle. The landscape of the league has shifted dramatically just over the last 48 hours or so: Justin Verlander is an Astro; Max Scherzer (and Jordan Montgomery) is a Ranger; the Dodgers, Rays and Orioles all found themselves a starting pitcher, while the Reds didn’t. The Angels (and Cubs) are all the way in, the Mets are all the way out, and the Twins and Yankees … apparently did not have cell reception on Tuesday afternoon. That’s a whole lot of change, and unsurprisingly, the futures market for season-ending awards has responded accordingly.
So, just like we did out of the All-Star break, let’s celebrate the start of baseball’s stretch run with a look at how the past few weeks and the trade deadline have impacted the NL MVP race over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Updated NL Rookie of the Year odds as of 8/4
Corbin Carroll -2500 Elly De La Cruz +1800 Matt McLain +2000
Francisco Alvarez +3500 Kodai Senga +4500 Spencer Steer +6500
Andrew Abbott +7000 Ezequiel Tovar +10000 Eury Perez +10000
James Outman +15000 Jordan Walker +15000 Bobby Miller +15000
Corbin Carroll hasn’t been forced to miss any more time with that injured shoulder, but it’s worth noting that his production has taken a nose-dive — he’s batting just .233/.320/.422 over his last 25 games. The speed is still very much there, though (he has 10 steals over that timespan), and Carroll banked enough production during his torrid first half that he’ll almost certainly walk away with the hardware if he can stay on the field for most of the remaining two months.
Especially since De La Cruz has come back to Earth a bit in recent weeks. You could see this coming — the phenom’s ground-ball and strikeout rates were always way too high to sustain the level of production he showed when he first broke into the Majors back in June — and it certainly is no reason to dampen his long-term outlook. It does, however, remove what was probably Carroll’s only real competition for this award: McLain has been very good, but he doesn’t have the power/speed upside to really make waves given Carroll’s head-start, while Alvarez is a bit limited as a player right now and the main eligible pitchers will have to deal with innings limits. (Senga is the one exception, but with the Mets bailing on the 2023 season entirely, who knows how they’ll handle a player who’s still very important to the team’s future.)
NL Rookie of the Year race: Takeaways and best bets
Any player other than Corbin Carroll, +850
If Carroll stays reasonably healthy, there’s just no way he doesn’t take home this award. Even if he doesn’t pick it back up, he’ll still put up a 30/40 season (or something awfully close to it) with a very healthy OPS — that’s historic territory for a rookie, and one that no one else has the runway or the ability to match. There is one red flag, though: that shoulder injury, which we still don’t fully trust given the fact that he missed nearly the entire Minor League season in 2021 and hasn’t looked quite right since resolving to play through the pain a few weeks ago. If Arizona fades fast enough, they could shut their franchise cornerstone down, which would leave the door open for someone else. Who that might be is anyone’s guess: No one’s ceiling is higher than Elly’s, but there are real red flags that could let McLain or even Senga steal it. Best off just taking the field.
