After what can only be described as a dysfunctional last few days, the Boston Red Sox (57-54) hope to right the ship and stay afloat in the AL Wild Card race as they welcome the Kansas City Royals (36-77) to town for a four-game set. First pitch of Monday’s opener is set for 7:10 p.m. ET from Fenway Park. Lefty Cole Ragans (2-3, 5.92 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while Boston turns to young righty Brayan Bello (8-6, 3.79).
Boston now finds itself back in the cellar of the AL East and four back of the Toronto Blue Jays for the third and final AL Wild Card spot after getting swept at home by the Jays over the weekend. This is a crucial stretch for the Red Sox, as this week sees seven games — all at home — against losing teams in the Royals and Detroit Tigers. Kansas City, meanwhile, has been surprisingly frisky, winners of seven of their last nine games. They’ll end their week renewing their border rivalry with the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Red Sox enter as heavy -205 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Royals at +170. The run total is set at 10.
Royals-Red Sox picks: Monday, August 7
Injury report
Royals
Day to day: C Salvador Perez (hand)
Out: RP Taylor Clarke (elbow), 1B/OF Nick Pratto (groin), SP Daniel Lynch (shoulder), SP Brad Keller (shoulder)
Red Sox
Out: SS Trevor Story (elbow), SP Chris Sale (shoulder), SP Garrett Whitlock (elbow), SP Tanner Houck (facial fracture), RP Joely Rodriguez (hip), SP/RP Corey Kluber (shoulder)
Starting pitchers
Cole Ragans vs. Brayan Bello
Acquired from the Rangers in the deal that sent Aroldis Chapman to Texas, Ragans has looked awfully good in two starts with Kansas City so far this season. The lefty allowed just one run on four hits over five innings against the Tampa Bay Rays in July, then dominated the New York Mets with six innings of shutout ball last week. He looks almost like a young Blake Snell, with a 96-mph fastball that rides up and above the strike zone while dropping changeup and curve down below. It’s a surprisingly legit arsenal, and if his command remains this solid, the Royals might have found themselves something.
Bello was sensational through the end of June, but the former top prospect fell back to Earth a bit in July, with a 5.59 ERA over his last five starts — he hasn’t allowed fewer than three runs in an outing since July 5. The righty’s sinker (56.3% ground-ball rate) and changeup (43.8% whiff rate) are both excellent, but he hasn’t been able to develop a consistent third option, and the league is starting to adjust.
Over/Under pick
Surprisingly, it’s Kansas City who comes into this game hot at the plate: The Royals have averaged 6.3 runs per game over their last nine, while the Red Sox have cracked three runs just once in their last nine. Fenway can lead to some awfully crooked numbers, but I think this total is a bit too high: I’m a believer in Ragans’ skill set, and with Boston slumping mightily right now, I think he keeps Boston in check while the Royals don’t do quite enough to get us to the over.
Pick: Under 10
Moneyline pick
Kansas City has the hotter pitcher and the hotter lineup, and they enter as sizable road ‘dogs. Call me crazy, but I’m backing the Royals here; if we get the version of Ragans and Bobby Witt Jr. that we’ve seen in recent days, there’s a ton of potential profit in this spot.
Pick: Royals
