We’re officially less than a week away until the 2024 Presidential Election. DraftKings Sportsbook continue to offer markets (only available in Ontario, Canada) for this Election, including the very important swing state market. Both candidates will need to win some of these key states if they want to be the 47th President of the United States. Let’s take a look at how the odds have shifted from earlier this week.
For the latest 2024 Presidential Election Odds on DraftKings (only available in Ontario, Canada) visit our coverage on DraftKings Network.
Seven Swing States Odds as of October 30th:
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes):
Donald Trump -150 (was -135)
Kamala Harris +120 (was +110)
Trump has taken a larger lead in Pennsylvania since we last checked earlier this week. Pennsylvania continues to be viewed as the most important swing state amongst the seven. From 1992 to 2012, Pennsylvania was part of what was called “The Blue Wall.” Along with Michigan and Wisconsin, these Northern states were pro Democratic over that period of time. That changed in 2016, when Trump was able to flip all of them, even at a small margin. However, in 2020, they reverted back to their old ways and voted for Joe Biden.
Once again, while a -150 line implies a probability of victory for Trump at 60%, the latest polls have him ahead by just 0.5%. The debate will continue over the course of week which is more reliable, the betting markets or the polls? Regardless, Trump is currently ahead (even by a razor thin margin in the polls) in both.
You can view which states are safe for Donald Trump here.
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -280 (was -340)
Kamala Harris +220 (was +250)
A bit of movement in favor of Harris comes in Arizona, but not significant. This could be a pure value play, as this state is heavily favored for Trump. Even after falling from -340 to -280, this implies a 73% chance of victory for Trump. Ironically enough, Trump continues to widen the lead here in the polls, moving to 2.2% as of Wednesday. Nonetheless, this is looking more like a state that will flip back to the Republican side after going blue in 2020. When Biden won here in 2020, he did so by a 0.4% margin and 10,400 votes.
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Georgia (16 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -250 (was -225)
Kamala Harris +200 (was +175)
After no change in Georgia from our first two updates, Trump moves to -250 from his -225 line earlier in the week. Trump seemingly lost some ground in the polls after peaking with a 2.0% lead on October 19th. He then fell to 1.5% before now climbing back up to 1.8%. Georgia is a state Trump is looking to flip back to his side after voting for Biden in 2020. It was a very thin margin in the last election, as Biden won by just 0.3% and 11,700 votes.
If Trump were to win all three of the states we’ve talked about, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, it would devastate Harris’ chances. She would need all of North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada to win.
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
Kamala Harris -125 (was -110)
Donald Trump +100 (was -110)
Harris has maintained her lead in Michigan in the betting market on DraftKings Sportsbook. That said, the polls show a lot closer race than it was just a couple of months ago. At one point, Harris had a 3.5% lead here and has slowly evaporated since. Nonetheless, she is still leading here in the polls by 0.4%. A win here wouldn’t seal the deal, but it would force Trump needing a minimum of three swings states and likely four of them. A win in Michigan would also nearly require Trump to win Pennsylvania, as he would have just one remaining path to victory otherwise.
Should Harris win Michigan AND Pennsylvania, Trump would NEED to win Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin. There would be no other paths to victory for him, barring he doesn’t flip any other states that are not considered a battleground, like New Hampshire, for example.
You can view which states are safe for Kamala Harris here.
Nevada (6 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -200 (was -135)
Kamala Harris +160 (was +110)
Nevada has continued to move heavily in favor of Trump. He was an underdog here last week but now has an implied probability of 66.6%. This is a state I’m going to be VERY curious how this plays out. Despite the line moving so much in favor of Trump, the polls remain completely deadlocked. Nevada voted in favor of Biden in 2020 and saw him win by 2.4%. Trump lost in both Washoe and Clark county, which was enough to hand the victory to Biden. Washoe county could potentially be up for grabs, as Biden only won by 4.5% compared to the 9.4% in Clark county. Maybe the data is out there that a flip could be incoming, as he cannot win without at least one of them voting in his favor. Nonetheless, this line has taken a dramatic turn over the past week.
North Carolina (16 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -280 (was -230)
Kamala Harris +220 (was +175)
After taking a slight bump downward from our first and second updates, Trump has gained a sizable lead in North Carolina. I’ve said before, of the seven states, North Carolina feels safe for Trump. They’ve voted for him in 2016 and 2020 and remained loyal when most states flipped. The polls have shown Trump take a 1% lead from where he was exactly a month from today when he was favored by 0.2%. As of Wednesday, Trump has a 1.2% lead in the polls over Harris. If we were to pencil in a victory for Trump here, he would only need Pennsylvania and Georgia to claim victory. As you saw above, at least from the betting market, his prospects to win Georgia are looking strong.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -135 (was -125)
Kamala Harris +110 (was +100)
Not a big change here. While this state is important to both sides, it feels is if this is one Harris would really like to take down. Winning here would give her three different combinations of needing just two swing states to claim victory. A win in Wisconsin would then require her to win Pennsylvania and either Georgia, North Carolina or Michigan to become President. However, polls have shown her to lose significant ground over the past few months. She peaked at a 3.8% lead back in late August over Trump. As of Wednesday, her lead has shrunk to 0.4%.
Presidential election odds on DraftKings Sportsbook are currently available only in Ontario, Canada.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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