Week 9. Time to turn up the Ginuwine and whisper “You Owe Me” to the divine. Or should it be Ace of Base, “I Saw the Sign”? Whatever it may be, let’s just make sure not to roster players who will be riding the pine. That DFS crime would require one helluva lifeline. Regardless, you can forget about hitting the bigtime or playing DFS professionally fulltime. Ok, enough of this depression that’s decreasing my hairline. Let’s identify the landmines so that we can safely arrive at the goldmine. Then it’s giddyup, Showtime!
There are 12 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has seven games with an O/U of at least 45: MIA/BUF (49), LV/CIN (45.5), DAL/ATL (52), NO/CAR (45), JAX/PHI (45.5) DET/GB (47.5) and LAR/SEA (48.5). There is one game with a total of 40 or below: NE/TEN (38).
There are no double-digit spread favorites. BAL is the largest favorite at -9 over DEN. There are five games within a field goal: LAC -1.5 over CLE, TEN -3 over NE, ATL -2.5 over DAL, ARI -1 over CHI and LAR -1 over SEA. There are five home dogs: NYG, CLE, CAR, GB and SEA.
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Quarterback
Stud
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,800) – The Jaguars have allowed the highest Pass EPA on the season by a wide margin and the second-most fantasy points on average to quarterbacks. Hurts should have a field day against this defense. In addition, we all know about the Tush Push and rushing prowess. Hurts has scored three and two rushing touchdowns over the last two weeks and is always in play to score on the ground. The only concern is lack of attempts due to blowout, but Hurts will have likely been a big reason.
Other Options – Lamar Jackson ($8,000), Josh Allen ($7,700), Jayden Daniels ($7,500), Kirk Cousins ($6,400), Dak Prescott ($6,300), Caleb Williams ($6,100)
Value
Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals ($4,500) – I know, I know. I just puked as well, but with Aidan O’Connell on IR, Minshew should get the start. The ceiling is low but Minshew has scored double-digit FPTS four times this season, with a season-high 15.96 FPTS in Week 8. The Bengals pass defense has allowed the 11th-highest Pass EPA with the seventh-lowest pressure rate.
Other Options – Matthew Stafford ($5,700)
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Running Back
Stud
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills ($6,700) – The Bills strength on defense is their secondary and, especially when they play Miami, they keep Tyreek Hill in front of them at all times. Tua Tagovailoa has struggled against this defense the last few times out, but Achane has gotten busy. In Week 2, he rushed 22 times for 96 yards and caught all seven targets for 69 yards. That was good for 29.5 FPTS. With Tua back under center last week, he put up 26.7 FPTS. Achane can take it to the house on any given play and the passing involvement provides one of the better floor/ceiling combos, especially when considering price.
Other Options – Saquon Barkley ($8,200), Kyren Williams ($8,000), Alvin Kamara ($7,800), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,600), Bijan Robinson ($7,400), Kenneth Walker III ($7,300), D’Andre Swift ($6,400)
Value
As of Monday night, there are no running backs under $6,000 that I like. We’ve made history! Keep abreast of injuries as an opportunity will likely present itself later in the week.
Wide Receiver
Stud
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($8,100) – As mentioned in the Jalen Hurts section, the Jags have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. I think Brown hits a big one, maybe two. Maybe three! Brown has scored at least 13 FPTS in every game with two above 25. He’s not a target monster but can score on any play.
Other Options – CeeDee Lamb ($8,800), Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600), Cooper Kupp ($7,700), Puka Nacua ($7,200), Terry McLaurin ($7,100), DJ Moore ($6,500)
Value
Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($4,300) – Tillman has scored 18.1 and 28.9 FPTS over the last two weeks. He’s received 12 and nine targets. He is still too cheap for his role and chemistry with Jameis Winston. The matchup against the Chargers is more difficult than against the Ravens and Bengals, but Winston is going to fling it around so Tillman should benefit.
Other Options – Darnell Mooney ($6,000), Khalil Shakir ($5,900), Ladd McConkey ($5,600), Courtland Sutton ($5,400), Keon Coleman ($5,400), Jerry Jeudy ($5,100)
Tight End
Stud
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys ($4,900) – This game has a whopping total of 52 points, the highest on the slate, so points should be scored. Pitts has scored double-digit FPTS in each of the last four games with a high of 25.1 last week. It’s happening!
Other Options – Brock Bowers ($6,000), Trey McBride ($5,800), David Njoku ($5,500), Evan Engram ($5,300), Jake Ferguson ($5,100), Tyler Kraft ($4,600), Mark Andrews ($4,200)
Value
Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers ($3,800) – I’m not enamored with any of the cheap tight ends, so Hill it is. The famous Son ringing endorsement. Hill is volatile because he doesn’t receive massive volume, but he sometimes spikes due to efficiency and money opportunities. Last week, he received four targets and had four rushes. He’s always in play to score multiple touchdowns and the matchup against a porous Panthers team is as good a matchup as any.
Other Options – Taysom Hill ($3,800)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Commanders DST at New York Giants ($3,400) – This unit was much-maligned early in the season, as every passing attack picked on it like they were the school bully. But this unit has grown and has a certain swagger to it now. They held the Bears to 111 yards passing, the Panthers to 85 yards and the Browns to 104 yards through the air. Granted, those are some terrible passing attacks, but still. They did put up 16 and 13 FPTS, too, so it wasn’t just real-life value. Now they face Daniel Jones, who has been better of late but is always prone to sacks and turnovers. With Jayden Daniels likely putting up points, the Giants will have to be aggressive to keep up, which could provide opportunities for those fantasy goodies.
Other Options – Chargers DST ($3,300), Titans DST ($3,200) if Brissett starts
Value
Bills DST vs. Miami Dolphins ($3,000) – The Bills have a sack in every game this season, with four games with at least three and a high of five. The defense has eight interceptions on the season and have plucked one in each of the last four games. The unit has scored double-digit FPTS in three games this season, with a high of 18. They have also had success against Tua Tagovailoa. Over the last two games against Tua, the Bills DST has racked up five interceptions and six sacks.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
