After splitting the first two games of their three-game set, the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies will each be vying for a series win in the rubber match on Thursday afternoon. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park. The Brewers will run ace Corbin Burnes (8-5, 3.73 ERA) to the mound, while Philly counters with righty Taijuan Walker (11-3, 4.00).
Winners of seven of 10 — including five of six against the division rival Cincinnati Reds on either side of the All-Star break — the Brewers enter play on Thursday with a 2.5-game lead in the NL Central. They’ll head back home after today to kick off a big weekend series against the Atlanta Braves on Friday.
The Phillies have been hot themselves, winning four of their last five to grab a hold of the third and final NL Wild Card spot. Philly will kick off a lengthy road trip following today’s game, starting with three in Cleveland against the Guardians this weekend.
This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Phillies coming in at -115 and Milwaukee at -105. The run total is set at 8.5.
Brewers-Phillies picks: Thursday, July 20
Injury report
Brewers
Out: SP Wade Miley (left elbow), 3B Brian Anderson (back), 1B Rowdy Tellez (right forearm inflammation, fractured left finger), RP Bennett Sousa (left shoulder nerve irritation), SP Brandon Woodruff (right shoulder strain)
Phillies
Out: OF Cristian Pache (right elbow inflammation), RP Seranthony Dominguez (left oblique strain), RP Jose Alvarado (left elbow inflammation), INF Josh Harrison (right wrist contusion)
Starting pitchers
Corbin Burnes vs. Taijuan Walker
Burnes has started to look more like his Cy Young self recently, with a 1.89 ERA over his last three starts — punctuated by six shutout innings with 12 Ks in a win over the Cincinnati Reds last weekend. When he’s at his best, the righty is pounding the zone with his cutter (which he throws some 54% of the time) to earn foul balls and called strikes and get ahead in the count, then busting out his wicked curveball (43.6% whiff rate) to put batters away. The consistency hasn’t been there so far this season — he’s given up four or more runs six times — but when he’s on, he’s as good as anyone.
Walker got off to a rocky start this year, but he’s been dynamite for the Phillies of late. Over eight starts since the beginning of June, the righty has posted a 2.25 ERA and a .183 batting average against, racking up seven wins in that span. He’s done it by pretty drastically tweaking his pitch mix, sidelining his four-seamer and slider and leaning far more heavily into his splitter and sinker to live at the bottom of the zone and force a ton of ground balls. It’s not the most electric strategy — and the floor is still pretty low when those balls in play don’t find gloves — but it’s worked so far.
Over/Under pick
The first two totals of this series have been 7 and 8, and I think these teams will make it three for three on Thursday. Burnes seems to have found whatever was missing earlier this year, and while the Phillies bats have shown some signs of life recently, I expect the former Cy Young winner to pitch well again. That means the Brewers will have to pick up some slack to push us over, but Milwaukee is just 19th in the league in wRC+ since the start of July and has been a mediocre offense all year.
Pick: Under 8.5
Moneyline pick
Milwaukee has the better starting pitcher on the mound, the better bullpen and the (very) slightly favorable odds, so I’m backing the Brewers in a game that figures to be a coin flip between two ascending teams.
Pick: Brewers
