Spring training has begun, and while us fans are out here soaking up footage of blue skies and green grass and balls snapping into gloves, MLB teams are busy trying to hammer out contract extensions before the regular season gets rolling — typically the unofficial cut-off point for negotiations, as players rarely want that sort of distraction while trying to perform on the field.
We already went over some young stars who could find long-term deals this spring. Now, however, we must turn our attention to a big name who appears to be on his way out the door: New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is set to enter his contract year, and extension talks don’t appear to be getting much of anywhere.
“I think that’s probably the most likely outcome,” Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said Monday when asked whether Alonso will hit free agency. Granted, that could just be a negotiating tactic; but given the changing of the guard in New York, Stearns’ past reticence to hand out big money to players entering their 30s and the fact that Alonso is represented by Scott Boras, it sure seems like things are trending away from a deal.
Alonso, 29, had an up-and-down year in 2023. He swatted 46 home runs in 154 games, but he also set new career worsts in batting average (.217), on-base percentage (.318), slugging percentage (.504) and average exit velocity (89.5 mph). There was a bone bruise in his wrist thrown in there, an injury he returned from well ahead of schedule, so maybe that’s a mitigating factor. And prior to last season, the 2016 second-round pick had established himself as one of the game’s premier power hitters, slashing .261/.349/.535 (140 OPS+) with 146 homers in 530 games from 2019 to 2022.
On one hand, making sure that bat remains in the middle of your lineup, especially when you have the sort of money the Mets do, seems like a no-brainer. On the other, though, Stearns has real reason to be reticent about locking Alonso up long-term. What should New York’s front office ultimately do? Let’s break down the pros and cons.
Three reasons to extend Alonso
1. The production, stupid
This one’s simple: 40-homer bats are in short supply, and Alonso is one of them. He’ll play the entire 2024 season at age 29, and he’ll be 30 by the time a hypothetical extension kicked in on Opening Day of 2025. He should still have several peak years remaining, in other words, and while he saw a slight dip in production last year, that was mostly driven by a fluky-low BABIP — most of his batted-ball metrics were as strong as ever, and according to Statcast, he had a massive gap between his xwOBA (.368, 91st percentile) and his actual wOBA (.346). He’s a true middle-of-the-order bat, and if the Mets are intent on getting back to contention by 2025, it’s hard to imagine them doing it without Alonso around — even with Steve Cohen bankrolling things.
2. He’s the face of the franchise
Francisco Lindor is team’s best all-around player, but let’s be real: Alonso is the face — and the heart — of the Mets. He arrived when the franchise was in flux, and he was one of the very few silver linings keeping fans sane during the Luis Rojas years. And it’s not just that he produces: Alonso loves being a Met in a way that few players ever have, embracing a franchise that plays second fiddle in its own city. He’s the most popular player the Mets have had since David Wright, and he’s currently on pace to break the team’s career home run record — he’s currently 60 dingers behind Darryl Strawberry — at some point in the second half of 2025.
Is there a way to properly value that? Maybe not, but that doesn’t mean the value isn’t there. Letting Alonso walk would be a massive gut punch, one that will also lead to fewer tickets and merchandise sold. The Mets have seen just about every ostensible savior either leave town or see their career waylaid by injury. Now they have another one, one who seemingly loves putting that responsibility on his shoulders, and it’s not a great look that the team might let him walk because they don’t feel like paying up.
3. The price could go up
For a cautionary tale, the Mets need only look across town, where Aaron Judge rejected a $230.5 million extension offer from the Yankees in the spring of 2022, won MVP and then signed a $360 million contract that winter. Granted, I don’t think anyone’s expecting that sort of production from Alonso, but the fact remains that the first baseman’s market is if anything lower than it otherwise would be based on his bad luck-heavy 2023. With Boras as his agent, he’s almost certainly not letting that dip lower his asking price, but if he gets back to his peak form this year, that price will only go up. Again, losing Alonso’s bat from the middle of the lineup — without a ton of natural successors in an uneven farm system — would be a huge blow to the team’s ability to build a contender for 2025 and beyond, and keeping him around will only get harder with time.
Three reasons not to extend Alonso
1. It’s not the friendliest profile
As productive as Alonso has been, the track record of right-handed hitting first basemen just entering their 30s is … harsh, to say the least. Alonso adds very little value on defense or on the bases; if he wants to remain a star-caliber player, he’s going to have to keep on mashing. And the odds of that aren’t great: Only 12 righty first basemen have put up even 10 WAR after turning 30 in the Wild Card era, and even some names on that list (e.g., Albert Pujols) don’t inspire a ton of confidence. To be fair to Alonso, there are exceptions, and he’s proven himself to be closer to José Abreu than, say, C.J. Cron and Ty France. But last year was Alonso’s worst 162-game season, and there are concerns about this profile in the long term — if Alonso loses a tick of bat speed, or injuries take their toll, the bottom could fall out very quickly, leaving the Mets with a $30 million millstone around their neck.
2. The market could bring his price down
The flip side to the point above about Alonso’s contract year also cuts the other way: Sure, he could go all Aaron Judge, but he could also have a fine-to-good season and find the free agent market not especially welcoming. No first baseman has signed a $200 million contract since Miguel Cabrera in 2014, and only two have gotten even $150 million since the Chris Davis debacle of 2016. There are only four first basemen who’ve even seen nine figures since 2017: Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, Eric Hosmer and Paul Goldschmidt.
Olson signed his eight-year, $168 million deal when he was still 27, more than a year younger than Alonso is now. And while Alonso is a very good player, is he going to come anywhere near $200 million when Freeman — a better hitter and defender by every metric — got just $162 million over six years? Guys like Cabrera, Pujols, Hosmer and Prince Fielder have poisoned the well here, especially for right-handed hitters. Alonso might lower his asking price and decide to stick with the only team he’s ever known once he sees what’s out there next winter.
3. The Mets could get a lot in a trade
Probably less than you might expect (see: the Corbin Burnes trade), but a lot nonetheless. If Alonso leaves as a free agent next offseason, the Mets would receive only a compensatory draft pick that would fall after the fourth round. Trading Alonso would be a deeply unpopular move with the fan base, the sort of thing Stearns may never live down, but Stearns is also one of the most respected executives in the league for a reason — he built the Brewers by moving fast and staying flexible, and he almost certainly won’t blink if the value is right. The Mets can play out the string this year, see what they have, and if they’re out of the race, they can flip him at the deadline to a contender. Given what they got for two aging aces in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander — consensus top-75 prospects Luisangel Acuna and Drew Gilbert, plus intriguing outfielder Ryan Clifford — and Stearns’ track record, they could absolutely get another building block for the future in return for Alonso.
Speaking as a baseball fan, watching great players spend their entire careers with one team is what the sport is all about, and Alonso has a chance to go down as the greatest Mets hitter in history. But in the cold light of February, I can certainly understand why New York might opt to put those nine figures elsewhere — Alex Bregman, perhaps? — while continuing to beef up their farm system. Then again, Cohen is made of money, and Alonso figures to hit at an All-Star level for at least the next three or four years.
