Vikings vs. Rams features quite a few interesting trends that should be considered when making predictions for this game. There’s a pair in particular that run in conflict with each other, but we’ll get to those later.
First, let’s look at how the betting splits for Vikings vs. Rams have taken shape as DraftKings Sportsbook bettors have cast their predictions.
Game splits
Moneyline
The Vikings (-155) have emerged as the overwhelmingly popular moneyline play. A whopping 89% of the bets have been cast on them, accounting for 88% of the moneyline handle.
Now, the slight difference in the percentages does provide a slight lean toward the Rams (+130). But at just a 1% difference, it’s hard to put too much weight there.
Spread
There’s also a lean toward the Rams covering, but this is more significant. While only getting 10% of the bets, L.A. has seen 17% of the handle.
While 7% might also seem like a small amount, that’s a massive difference from the action seen on the moneyline. Moreover, as a widely unpopular bet, that 7% difference illustrates how that 10% is more so made up of larger bets.
Also, The spread has also behaved in a way that makes things easier for Vikings bettors. It opened at 3-even initially and fluctuated between that mark and 3.5 (helping Rams bettors at this time). But now, the fluctuations seem to be between 2.5 and the opening mark (now helping the already popular Rams).
Total
The over is both the popular play and the sharp play. It’s seen 65% of the game-total bets and accounted for 71% of the game-total handle.
The total itself has increased as betters have cast their Vikings vs. Rams predictions, as well. Since opening at 46, it has gotten as high as 48.5 before slightly dipping down to 48-even.
Systems to note
Road favorites have taken care of business this season, covering in 25 of 38 games. What’s more, NFC vs. NFC matchups in which this system was in play have seen the favorite cover 8 of 12 times. Also, regardless of conference, road favorites coming off a loss are 14-6 ATS this season.
So while there’s a strong case to be made for the Rams ATS based on the bets being made on DKSB, there’s a system that backs the Vikings ATS.
In the end, where you land on the side of the opening 3-point mark could be what helps making that final decision.
As for the total, the over is 16-9 throughout the last four weeks when the home team is playing as a dog this season. On the season, it’s only 20-17-1, so just under break even.
Trends to note
There are two trends specific to Minnesota that look strange when positioned next to one another:
- The Vikings lost nine straight on the road vs. NFC West teams.
- The Vikings have covered the spread in the last six games that they were favored vs. the NFC West.
What’s important to note is the six-game trend is not specific to location (home vs. road). But because we have the nine-game road trend, we can see that the Vikings were at home in those six games that they covered as favorites.
- Here are a few more (far less confusing) trends to note while casting your Vikings vs. Rams predictions:
- In the last 13 games that the Rams have been a dog, the opposing team has scored the game’s first TD.
- Justin Jefferson has scored a TD in 5 straight games vs. NFC teams.
- Demarcus Robinson has logged 28+ yards receiving in the last six games the Rams were underdogs. (Receiving yards O/U is 25.5)
- Aaron Jones has logged 93+ rushing yards in Minnesota’s last six road games. (Rushing yards O/U is 68.5)
- The Vikings have won six first quarters in a row.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
