This is a new article here on DK Network to hopefully give the bettors a look behind the book at the most heavily bet NBA player props of the night by ticket count. It indicates which props bettors are most interested in for that slate of games, and I’ll try and offer some analysis as to why (or analysis as to why you should be careful). Please keep in mind that betting the NBA is an ever changing market, and that injury news closer to tip could always take one of these players off the board, or change other props that become more heavily bet close to tipoff.
Bam Adebayo OVER 0.5 3-Pointers Made (-140) – The Heat are one of the more methodical teams in the NBA, but they are making a point to adapt and shoot more from beyond the arc. That includes Adebayo who is “on a mission” to shoot more from downtown. Bam was 5-of-13 from 3-point range in four preseason games, hitting at least one in three of the four games, despite barely playing more than 20 minutes per. This one makes a lot of sense as the most bet prop of the night, and I would expect the juice to continue to rise.
Jalen Green OVER 20.5 Points (-120) – The Rockets got a lot of hype this offseason. Green just signed a big extension, and is expected to make a jump in his game this season. Green does have a good matchup against the Hornets, but this does feel like a bit of a public play. The number has seen 19.5 as well, so this feels like just trusting an over on a player fans and bettors expect to have a good season.
Tyrese Haliburton Double-Double: YES (-135) – Haliburton was flirting with averaging a double-double last season before his injuries. Now he has a cushy matchup against a Pistons team that he had double digit assists against in three of four games last season. Easy to understand why bettors like this one, and the juice likely continues to rise.
Ja Morant UNDER 7.5 Assists (+114) – This feels like more of a professional play, going to the under on a star player. We’ve seen this number pop to 8.5 throughout the day, but with heavy juice to the under, rather than the plus-money offered at 7.5. Morant only played a handful of games last season, but did average 8.1 dimes. The thought process on his under is likely that it’ll be his first NBA game since early January, and the Grizzlies are finally fully healthy. With a lot more options on the floor, perhaps we see Morant’s usage down, particularly early in the season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 28.5 Points (-110) – This feels like a public play, and like Green, we’ve seen this number touch 27.5 too. Milwaukee is mostly healthy, and playing a 76ers team without two of its best players, so I would be careful of this high total in the season opener.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
