The dark days of the NBA offseason are in the past and the 2024-25 regular season is off to the races. While opening night kicked off with a doubleheader between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics followed by the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves, tonight holds a full 10-game slate.
There are plenty of matchups to dive into as each team begins their 2024-25 season journey. While you can check out each matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook, here are my five favorite player props on the October 23rd slate.
Bam Adebayo 30+ Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-110)
The Miami Heat are set to face off with the Orlando Magic in their opening game of the season. The Heat had a relatively quiet offseason and have hopes that injuries were the biggest reason for their playoff shortcomings last year. One reason for optimism surrounding the team is Bam Adebayo, who could take another step forward this year.
Adebayo is coming off of a successful summer with Team USA in which he showcased his three-point shooting for the first time. Both the Heat and the three-time All-Star have teased that this is in the plans for this season and could provide another avenue for him to score. This also occurred after a season in which Adebayo averaged 19.3 points. 10.4 rebounds, and 3.9 assists while coming in third in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Looking at last year’s production, Adebayo tallied 30 or more combined points, rebounds, and assists in 49 of the 71 games he played in. He impacts the game in a variety of ways and produced an average of 33.40 combined points, rebounds, and assists last year. Expect him to only build off this total and to finish with a statline somewhere along the lines of 20 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists. While there is some value in the alt lines, for the sake of this article we will lock in 30+ combined PRA.
Andre Drummond Over 13.5 Rebounds (-135)
The Philadelphia 76ers’ opening night chances took a notable hit when Joel Embiid and Paul George were each ruled out due to their respective knee issues. While this is frustrating from a team standpoint, it also opens up some doors in the prop markets.
Andre Drummond knew the situation when he signed his two-year, $10 million deal to return to Philadelphia. Embiid’s injury issues were at the forefront of this decision for both the Sixers and Drummond himself. The two-time All-Star revealed that Embiid had called him personally saying how important he was.
If there is one thing that Andre Drummond can do, it is rebound the basketball. The self-proclaimed “best rebounder of all time” has a chance to back up his claim in tonight’s matchup. Drummond has led the NBA in rebounding four times and is coming off the two best rebounding percentages of his career during his time with the Bulls.
Rebounding has been a clear weakness for the Sixers and is a significant strength of Andre Drummond. He has recorded as many as 29 rebounds in a game, recorded 20+ rebounds in 91 different games, and has logged 15+ rebounds in a game 313 times in his career. Expect him to add another to this list as he receives a full workload as the starting center.
Brook Lopez Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+105)
The Milwaukee Bucks will be facing off with the Sixers tonight, which should be music to Brook Lopez’s ears. The 36-year-old has had great success against Philadelphia in his career and has an opportunity to build off this on opening night. The last time Lopez faced the Sixers, he knocked down five three-pointers, and he has made two or more three-pointers in 11 of his 17 matchups with the Sixers since joining the Bucks.
The former All-Star and NBA champion went through one of the most impressive turnarounds of all time midway through his career. After a successful start as a post-oriented player for the first eight seasons of his career, Lopez worked his way out to the perimeter to keep up with modern basketball. The two-time All-Defense honoree attempted just 31 total three-pointers through the first eight seasons of his career but has launched 281 or more attempts in every season he has been healthy since 2016-17. Lopez has attempted at least four three-point attempts per game in each of these seasons and connected at a 35.2% rate overall.
Looking at this matchup, the Sixers struggle greatly with stretch big men. While this is mostly because Joel Embiid prefers to stand in as a rim protector, Andre Drummond is not exactly known for his ability to switch out on the perimeter either. Expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to cause some issues attacking the paint and to set up Lopez with some clean catch-and-shoot opportunities. He has a strong track record against the Sixers, averaged 1.9 made three-pointers per game last year, and can be counted on to hit a pair of three-pointers in the opening matchup.
Ja Morant Over 25.5 Points (-120)
Last season was a disaster for Ja Morant. The Grizzlies superstar was handed two separate suspensions for off-court issues and played just nine total games. His season was officially ended due to a labrum tear in his shoulder which required surgery. While Morant headlined things, many other members of the Grizzlies saw their season disrupted by injury last year as well.
Now that he is back on the floor, expect Morant to look like his old self once again. In the nine games he did play last year, Morant averaged 25.1 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.6 rebounds. During the full season before, Morant averaged 26.2 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.9 rebounds.
It feels like people have forgotten exactly how talented and productive Morant can be when he is on the floor, and the odds leave room to capitalize on this. The Grizzlies will start their season in Utah as they face off with the Jazz to open things up. Expect Morant to announce his presence on the NBA stage in the way he does best and for the Grizzlies superstar to return to being their most important offensive talent.
James Harden 33+ Points & Assists (-110)
Tonight will be a historic moment for the Los Angeles Clippers as they officially open the new Intuit Dome. They will be facing off with the Phoenix Suns in the opening matchup, and there will be plenty of expectations for James Harden now that Paul George has left and Kawhi Leonard remains sidelined due to injury.
While he is not the MVP candidate he once was, James Harden is plenty capable of filling up the stat sheet. Last season he averaged 16.6 points and 8.5 assists while deferring to the other two Clippers’ stars following his early season trade. With a full offseason in Los Angeles under his belt and fewer options ahead of him in the pecking order, expect Harden to take a stride forward in his production this season.
The self-proclaimed “system” will have a chance to play his own style starting tonight. Expect things to look closer to his time in Philadelphia, where Harden averaged 21.0 points and 10.6 assists per game. Look for Harden to be in attack mode from start to finish in this game. While my initial lean was towards Harden scoring over 22.5 points, the two-time assist champ can be just as dominant in his passing ability as his scoring. Look for him to take full control of the offense and have one of his best statistical outputs since putting on a Clippers jersey in the season debut.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
