Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season will be highlighted by perhaps the most drama-filled matchup of the season. The New York Jets will be traveling to face the Pittsburgh Steelers with notable storylines occurring both on and off the field.
The Jets have dominated headlines to start the season. Most recently, they settled the contractual dispute with Haason Reddick after he held out for the first six weeks of the season. New York also reunited Davante Adams with Aaron Rodgers by trading for the six-time Pro Bowler following last week’s loss. This also comes just over a week after the organization elected to fire head coach Robert Saleh after its 2-3 start.
It has not been a quiet season in Pittsburgh either and it will be making a quarterback change ahead of this matchup. Justin Fields started the first six weeks of the season but Russell Wilson is expected to receive snaps Sunday night. Mike Tomlin has done his best to keep the game plan under wraps, but don’t rule out both quarterbacks receiving some snaps in the game.
The Jets enter the matchup as two-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook and -142 on the moneyline. The Steelers are +120 moneyline underdogs and the over/under for the game sits at 39.5 for the game.
While there are plenty of sharper breakdowns for the game outlook, player props and more, this article will tackle some long-shot bets to consider. These types of big swings come with high-risk but can save your Sunday or allow you to have a little extra fun during the primetime matchup.
T.J. Watt to Have 1+ Sack in Each Half (+350 Odds)
There is a case to be made that T.J. Watt is the most valuable non-quarterback in the entire NFL. The Steelers are 73-35-2 with him while the team is just 1-10 in the matchups he has missed. Following the injury to Aidan Hutchinson, the Defensive Player of the Year award is for the taking and Watt will have his eyes on the prize for the second time in his career.
The best way for his case to grow is with a strong performance in a primetime opportunity. While he has tallied 4.5 sacks already this year, which ranks 12th in the NFL, this is still below expectations for the superstar. Watt has led the NFL in sacks three times, including recording as many as 22.5 sacks and recording 19.0 sacks just last season.
The Jets have struggled to stop opposing pass rushers this season. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 16 times across the first six weeks, which is tied for the sixth-most in the NFL. They also allowed the fifth-most sacks in the league last season. Expect Watt to pick his spots and make his impact felt throughout the matchup. He is due for a breakout multi-sack performance and a struggling Jets offensive line could present this opportunity. The +350 odds are worth taking a chance on.
Aaron Rodgers 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+450 Odds)
There are no more excuses available for Aaron Rodgers. He is fully healthy, the Jets have traded for his favorite wide receivers and the organization has made a coaching change already this season. While he has shown some rust and signs of decline for stretches, Rodgers is still capable of leading a high-level offense.
Pittsburgh has a strong defense and has made an effort to control the clock so far this season. It currently ranks fifth in time of possession and ranked higher than that to start the year. This has helped the Steelers’ case as they rank second in points allowed and eighth in yards given up.
If the Jets are to have success scoring the football, it will be due to Rodgers’ arm. So far this season, 10 of their touchdowns have been through the air with just three coming on the ground. They rank second in passing yards and passing touchdowns while ranking 27th in rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards. Rodgers has thrown for three or more touchdowns 82 times in his career. The Jets do not have much time to run things around and it feels as if their season really starts now. Look for Rodgers to deliver his best performance in a Jets uniform and consider taking a chance on three passing touchdowns at +450 odds.
Garrett Wilson & Davante Adams to Combine for 2+ TDs (+370 Odds)
It is to be determined where Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson will rank among the top wide receiving duos across the NFL. But don’t expect them to be very far down on the list. Through the opening six weeks, Wilson has tallied 41 receptions for 399 yards and three touchdowns. He leads all wide receivers in the NFL with 67 targets through the first six weeks.
Adams has not had as strong of a start and has been limited to just three games due to his mysterious hamstring injury. In these three games, Adams has tallied 18 receptions on 27 targets for 209 yards and a touchdown. The inconsistent quarterback play from Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell was a part of the reason for this and likely correlated to his desire to no longer be suiting up for the Raiders.
Expect both of these receivers to be targeted heavily and be looked at as the primary red-zone targets. Both star pass catchers are capable of finding the end zone at least once in this game and still cashing the bet if one of these stars records two touchdowns gives it extra appeal. Adams led the NFL in touchdowns twice before, including once with Rodgers as his quarterback. You can find this bet in the TD Scorers section on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Same Game Parlay (+1200)
- Breece Hall Over 91.5 Rush & Receiving Yards (-115)
- Davante Adams Anytime TD (+160)
- Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)
- George Pickens Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While we talked plenty about the outlook for Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers in prior sections of this article, Breece Hall is due for a breakout soon. The star running back was expected to be one of the most productive RBs in the NFL this season but has struggled so far. He was held to 62 rushing yards or fewer in each of the first five weeks and the Jets have ranked 27th in rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards this season.
Finally, Hall broke out last week. The third-year running back recorded 113 rushing yards and 169 yards from scrimmage last week, which was by far his best performance of the season. New York needs to find better balance within its offense and this will start with making a conscious effort to get Hall the ball. For the caliber of talent he is, 91.5 combined rushing yards is too low of a bar, and the young running back should just be getting started this season.
While it will be interesting to see the Steelers’ offense in practice, in theory, they should be more pass-oriented following the quarterback change. George Pickens will headline the list of wide receivers and has recorded 26 receptions for 363 yards so far this season. He has tallied over 51.5 receiving yards in four of the six games this season. Expect him to lead the team in all receiving categories and have no problem clearing the 51.5-yard margin.
While the nature of this being a parlay inherently comes with more risk, the +1200 payout here is enticing.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
