What a difference a year makes. This time last spring, fantasy owners were in a panic about the state of the third base position — like, “considering Nolan Arenado in the second round” state of panic. The hot corner had been buoyed by the homers of juiced-ball era, but as the game’s power levels came back to Earth, that production dried up — leaving managers without a ton of compelling options to choose from (and even the ones they did have, like Alex Bregman, were at best four-category contributors).
But then Gunnar Henderson lived up to his potential and then some. And then Royce Lewis shifted to third base and looked like a future star. And then Spencer Steer, Josh Jung and Jake Burger happened. By the time prospects like Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte and Junior Caminero arrived, what had begun as severe positional scarcity had become genuine depth.
You can poke holes in the profiles of several of those names above, and I’d label at least a couple of them outright busts. But there are also more names below them that could help your squads in 2024, from sneaky-solid veterans to post-hype sleepers to rookie breakout candidates. The upshot is that, contrary to last spring, third base is a position I don’t feel a ton of urgency to fill early. Its highest-end players aren’t quite as high-end as at other positions, and there’s upside to be found at all stages of the draft.
Top tier
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Don’t get me wrong — I really like Ramirez, Devers, Riley and Henderson, and I can imagine scenarios in which I draft all of them. (Particularly Ramirez, who I think is being undervalued right now.) But they’re also a bit behind some of the other options in their draft buckets, Ramirez behind the better five-category studs and Devers and Riley behind the guys contribute both power and steals. I’m also all-in on the Lewis breakout hype — he looked like a borderline MVP candidate when healthy last year, and if he puts together anything close to a full season, he’ll lap his current ADP.
Beyond that, though, I’m likely passing on the rest of this tier. Especially De La Cruz, who’s going way to high for a guy who hit .191 in the second half last year while getting benched against lefties and could still well see some time in the Minors if he gets off to a rough start. Machado, Arenado and Bregman are fine as far as they go, but it’s hard to see the upside here, just as it’s hard to see how they’re significantly different from some of the 3.5/4-category guys in the tier below.
Middle class
Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres
Isaac Paredes, Tampa Bay Rays
Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals
Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
Jake Burger, Miami Marlins
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants
Eugenio Suarez, Arizona Diamondbacks
Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies
If the draft breaks such that I miss the first few names, my starting third baseman will more than likely come from this tier. Jung and Kim I’m out on — the former strikes out a ton and got exposed after his hot start last year, while the latter is due for some steals regression that will kneecap much of his value. After that, though, there are a ton of names to like. Paredes, Gorman and Burger could hit 30-35 homers and are excellent targets if you find yourself in need of power in the middle rounds, while Hayes and Bohm are two of my favorite sleepers as guys who will contribute a little bit everywhere and have more upside if they continue to unlock better launch angles. Heck, even Chapman, Suarez or McMahon are fine CI options, even if they’re unremarkable — boring homers and RBI count all the same, especially in deeper leagues where playing time is paramount.
Sleepers
Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds
Colt Keith, Detroit Tigers
Jeimer Candelario, Cincinnati Reds
Jordan Westburg, Baltimore Orioles
Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
Luis Rengifo, Los Angeles Angels
Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals
Willi Castro, Minnesota Twins
Brett Baty, New York Mets
While you can’t rely on any of these guys to be fantasy starters just yet, many of them carry that kind of upside — while others figure to be valuable bench pieces depending on what your statistical needs might be late in drafts. Marte figures to start the year as Cincy’s starting third baseman, and while he could see time in the Minors if he flops, he’s got a ton of raw tools and could be a power/speed steal late in drafts. Candelario is about the opposite, all floor and no ceiling, but he’s solid across the board and will get a big boost in that ballpark.
Keith, Busch and Caminero are three top prospects who all have a real chance at seeing everyday playing time from Opening Day onwards. Caminero has the most upside, but he also has the iffiest path to a starting job, while Keith and Busch offer late power potential.
Category helpers
Runs: N/A
Homers: Chapman, Muncy, Gorman, Suarez, Polanco, Keith
RBI: Burger, Jung, Candelario, Suarez
Steals: Garcia, Marte, Castro
Average: Hayes, Bohm
