The NLCS is headed back to the east coast for Game 3. The Mets came up huge in Monday’s afternoon affair in Los Angeles, tying the series at 1-1 thanks primarily to the efforts of Sean Manaea and Mark Vientos. Can New York ride that momentum to another victory against the Dodgers on Wednesday?
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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
Team Total: Mets Over 3.5 Runs (-115)
At some point, the Mets are probably going to stop hitting grand slams. However, I’d feel better about that day of regression being Game 3 if the Dodgers weren’t sending Walker Buehler to the mound. Buehler was once one of the best young pitchers in the National League. At the moment he’s, well, broken. The 30-year-old returned from Tommy John surgery in 2024, but struggled throughout, finishing the regular season with a 5.38 ERA and a 5.54 FIP across 16 starts and 75.1 innings. If possible, Buehler was even worse when pitching away from Dodger Stadium, registering a 6.53 ERA and surrendering an eye-popping 2.97 opponent home runs per nine.
Buehler’s lone appearance in the postseason also didn’t do much to inspire confidence. Not only did the Padres tag the RHP with six earned runs in five innings of work, Buehler managed to face 24 opposing hitters without recording a single strikeout. What is this? 1906?
Meanwhile, the Mets have been solid in the run production department during the playoffs — at least in the context of the rest of MLB. Of the eight teams to play a game in the Divisional Round, New York’s .698 OPS is the second-best mark of the group. The lows have certainly been low, this is a lineup that was shutout in Game 1, but the Mets have managed at least four runs in seven of their nine contests in the postseason.
Pete Alonso 2+ Total Bases (+160)
Look, if I was managing the Dodgers, I’d be itching to get Buehler out of this game as soon as the top of the Mets’ lineup was coming around for a second time — especially with yesterday’s off-day rejuvenating Los Angeles’ bullpen. I guess that’s my long way of saying that I wouldn’t get too tied up in individual player matchups with Buehler. He might not last that long.
Still, having said that, Alonso’s numbers against the RHP are absurd. In 14 career at-bats, Alonso has five hits off Buehler. Four of those five have left the ball park. Alonso should serious consider having Buehler toss him batting practice at next year’s Home Run Derby. Even during an underwhelming campaign, Alonso ranked in the 89th percentile of qualified hitters in barrel rate (13.2%) and 81st percentile in expected slugging percentage (.470). For his career, his expected wOBA on batted ball events in .432. If Buehler isn’t missing any bats, he’s in serious trouble against Alonso.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
