The Saints host the Broncos in a cross-conference Thursday Night Football matchup. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Broncos (-2) at Saints o/u 37
Broncos Team Breakdown
The Broncos have played some of the lowest-scoring games in the league this year. Their offense is 25th in the NFL in scoring but their defense is fourth in scoring defense. QB Bo Nix had a decent start to his rookie season but things have been trending in the wrong direction in recent weeks. Among 33 qualified quarterbacks, Nix is 31st in EPA+CPOE composite. Turnovers are starting to be a problem for Nix and his completion percentage has gone way downhill as well.
The Denver defense has been phenomenal this season and has led the team to a 3-3 record. The Broncos have held their opponents under 14 points in three of their six games this season. The defense is currently second in the NFL in EPA/play, behind only the Vikings.
Saints Team Breakdown
The Saints are on a really bad trajectory entering this game. They started the season 2-0 and had the best offensive metrics in the league through those first two weeks. Since Week 3, the Saints are 0-4 and their offense is 28th in the league in EPA/play. The defense has also taken a turn for the worse, allowing 34.3 points per game over their last three games. Head coach Dennis Allen is in a really tricky spot and needs to do something quickly before the Saints are put out of playoff contention.
The Saints started rookie QB Spencer Rattler last week against the Bucs in place of the injured Derek Carr. It was Rattler’s first-ever NFL appearance and it was an up-and-down game for the rookie. Rattler played pretty well in the first half and had the Saints out to a 27-24 halftime lead. However, the Bucs took control of the game in the second half and Rattler struggled in obvious passing downs trying to get his team back into the game. Rattler should have shaken off some first-game nerves but preparing on a short week is very tough for a rookie QB, especially against an elite defense like the Broncos have.
Pick and Prediction
Both teams are starting rookie quarterbacks on a short week, which has historically been really tough for rookie QBs. An inexperienced quarterback needs as much time as possible to watch film and get coached up throughout the week and that is severely lacking when you only have three days to prepare. Spencer Rattler and Bo Nix were the two worst quarterbacks in the NFL over the past three weeks by EPA+CPOE composite and they could both have a lot of issues in this game as well.
The Saints’ defense is 28th in rush EPA and with how Nix has been struggling, the Broncos should come in with a conservative run-heavy approach in this game. The New Orleans crowd should be loud in primetime and Sean Payton will want to help his young QB settle in by running the football a lot in this game.
While the Broncos’ defense has been elite across the board, they have been better against the pass than the run. With Rattler making his second career start against this tough defense, the Saints should also come into this game with a run-heavy approach. There is a chance the Saints’ offense will be without their top two receivers, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, which will only make life more difficult for Rattler. Alvin Kamara should be in for a huge workload in this game both running the ball and in the short pass game.
This game could come down to which quarterback does the best job of protecting the ball. Both offensive coaching staffs will be emphasizing that they cannot afford turnovers and this game could easily turn into a field position battle and come down to who runs the ball better. With that conservative approach and some likely subpar quarterback play, the under is the best way to bet this game on Thursday Night Football.
Best Bet: Saints/Broncos u37
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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