It’s for all the marbles tonight in Los Angeles. The Padres and Dodgers will play for the right to move onto the NLCS tonight at 8:08 p.m. ET. Here are some bets I’m on for tonight that you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Padres moneyline (+120)
I don’t feel confident in Yoshinobu Yamamoto tonight against the Padres. We’ve seen him face this club three times during the regular season and postseason and never had success. In two regular season starts, Yamamoto only went six innings, allowing eight runs on eight hits with a .449 wOBA and a 6.33 FIP. Then, earlier this series, it was more of the same wtih five runs allowed on five hits through three innings. I have a hard time believing we’re going to see a complete 180 and Yamamoto completely shuts this team down. Don’t get me wrong, Yamamoto looked great after returning to the Dodgers rotation in September. However, he had such a cupcake schedule, it shouldn’t come as a shock. He faced the Cubs, Braves and Rockies twice in his four September starts.
Despite missing a good chunk of the season, Darvish managed three regular season starts against the Dodgers. Through 15.2 innings he allowed four runs (three earned) on eight hits with a .211 wOBA and a 3.61 FIP. He followed that up with seven brilliant innings earlier in the series allowing just one run on three hits. The pitching matchup feels like it’s tilted in the favor of the Padres between these two. I’d expect the leash to be extremely quick on both starters but from what we’ve seen in the past, Yamamoto is the one I’d expect to be out early.
Padres Team Total Bases: Over 12.5 -105
This is a new market we have up on DraftKings Spotsbook that I love. I’ve always been someone who like to bet team totals a lot but this takes the runs out of it. Nothing is more frustrating than a team who is collecting a lot of hits but not getting that pivotal one to drive in runs. This simply is the bases earned from those hits. When it comes to Padres-Dodgers, offense is certainly in the cards.
The Padres have been hitting for a ton of power this series. Of the 34 hits in the series, 15 of them have gone for extra bases, including eight home runs. As I mentioned, the struggle that Yamamoto has exhibited against this Padres team is very concerning. So if I like the Padres in this game, I’m thinking they get an early jump on him. Of the four games played, this is a number they’ve gone over in two of the four games. With the way the Padres have been swinging the bat in this series, I like them to go over 12.5 bases tonight.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
