The Cowboys host the Lions in a pivotal NFC matchup on Sunday. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lions (-3) at Cowboys o/u 52
Lions Team Breakdown
The Lions are 3-1 and head into this game on extra rest because of their early bye week. After a somewhat rocky start to the season, the Lions’ offense exploded for 42 points against Seattle before the bye week. That should have instilled a lot of confidence into this team, which is always important. Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell should have been able to identify what worked so well against Seattle and come up with a great game plan to take on the Cowboys here.
The Lions are really excelling in the ground game. They rank third in the NFL in EPA/rush with the two-headed monster of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Their offense also ranks sixth in the NFL in overall EPA/play. This group of skill position players combined with Jared Goff and a great play-caller makes this one of the most dangerous offenses in the league and with extra time to prepare they will be nearly unstoppable. Aidan Hutchinson has been arguably the best defensive player in the league this year and should be able to attack a questionable Cowboys offensive line.
Cowboys Team Breakdown
The Cowboys have had a strange season. After a 1-2 start to the season, they have scraped out back-to-back wins against the Giants and Steelers. It took a last-minute game-winning touchdown to beat the Steelers last week and they held on for dear life against the Giants the week before in a game where New York outgained them. The offensive line and rushing attack for Dallas don’t look quite right and they currently rank 25th in the NFL in rushing success rate. Also, Dak Prescott is so dependent on CeeDee Lamb that it makes it easier for defenses to scheme against Dallas. There is no clear WR2 for the Cowboys so safeties can always shade towards Lamb.
Dallas ranks dead last in the NFL in defensive rush EPA. They are allowing opposing offenses to shred them on the ground and that is a bad sign when facing an elite rush offense like Detroit. They haven’t been great against the pass either, their defense ranks 18th in dropback EPA despite playing a pretty manageable schedule of opposing quarterbacks so far.
Pick and Prediction
There are a few trends going in the Lions’ favor in this game:
- Jared Goff is 38-18 (67.9%) ATS when playing indoors in his career
- Jared Goff is 18-8 (69.2%) ATS as the Lions QB in the game after a SU loss
- Since 2023, Jared Goff is 6-1 (85.7%) ATS as a road favorite
- Dak Prescott has a career record of 19-33 (36.5%) ATS against teams with a winning record
The Lions have been an elite rushing team and the Cowboys have had the worst rush defense in the league. The Cowboys have also struggled to establish a real rushing attack themselves and the Lions have a tough rush defense that should force the Cowboys to be very one-dimensional on offense. The Lions’ rushing attack will allow them to completely control the clock and time of possession as they wear down this Cowboys defense. Ultimately, the Lions will come out on top with a win and cover the short spread.
Best Bet: Lions -3
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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