Four weeks of the NFL season are now in the books. The 2024 season is still open for the taking, with the Chiefs and Vikings remaining the only undefeated teams, the Jaguars the only winless team, and everyone else falling somewhere in the middle.
With over three-quarters of the season remaining, there is still plenty up for grabs. At the top of this list is the most prestigious individual award: the MVP. With no player holding odds less than +300 on DraftKings Sportsbook, there is still value in the MVP futures market.
Here is a look at the current MVP odds with their season-opening odds in parentheses.
Patrick Mahomes (+300):
New year, new wide receivers, new opposing teams, and Patrick Mahomes remains the inevitable. The 29-year-old has led the Chiefs to a 4-0 record, throwing for 904 yards and six touchdowns. The biggest area of concern has been his turnovers, as Mahomes has thrown five interceptions already this season. It has not hurt the Chiefs yet and Mahomes has found a balance of how much he can play around and push the envelope while keeping his team in the drivers’ seat. It has not been the best start to a season by his bar of expectation, but Mahomes remains the gold standard for quarterback play. If Kansas City finishes the year with the best record, it will be difficult to stop Mahomes from winning his third MVP award.
Josh Allen (+350):
While the Chiefs hold the best record, Josh Allen has been the best quarterback through the first four games. Allen has completed 69.3% of his passes, throwing for 814 yards and seven touchdowns. He also has added 106 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns with his legs. While turnover issues have been a problem for Allen throughout his career, he has yet to throw his first interception on the year. Concerns over the loss of Stefon Diggs and the uncertainty at the wide receiver position have been quieted quickly. The Bills sit with a 3-1 record and Allen would be my choice for MVP thus far. There is not a ton of value on the board at +350 odds but expect this to only shrink as the season progresses.
Lamar Jackson (+800):
After suffering a frustrating loss to the Chiefs in the opening week, the Ravens have been back to looking like the Super Bowl contender they desire to be. Lamar Jackson has been at the heart of this with both his arms and his legs. Through the opening four weeks, he has thrown for 858 yards and five touchdowns with just one interception. He also has added 308 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns on the ground, while leading the NFL with the most yards per carry in the league. He has a notable pop with his legs even beyond what was seen in past years due to the weight he lost in the offseason. The duo of Jackson and Derrick Henry has made the team incredibly dynamic. Expect Jackson to remain in the MVP mix this season although it will be difficult to take home the award for the second consecutive season and the third time in his career.
Brock Purdy (+1400):
The 2-2 record and injury concerns on the 49ers’ roster have overshadowed Brock Purdy’s excellent start to the season. The former Mr. Irrelevant has had more on his plate than ever before and is producing in this role. Through the opening four games, he has thrown for 1,130 yards (4th in NFL), five touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions. He is leading the league in yards per pass attempt and net yards per pass attempt. Christian McCaffrey’s injury status and timeline concern continue to look more concerning. Purdy will be responsible for keeping the 49ers afloat down the stretch of the season. If he can do this and put San Francisco in the hunt for a top playoff seed, you will not be able to keep his name out of MVP conversations. He has seen some positive odds movement already but expect the +1400 odds to only shrink significantly from here. This is not a bad longshot ticket to keep in your pocket as Purdy will be in the mix more than these odds indicate.
The Verdict: Josh Allen +350
It may not be the lucrative payout, but the pathway for Josh Allen to win his first MVP is there. He has taken a significant stride forward in his decision-making this season which has been his biggest weakness in years’ past. Not having a clear WR1 has allowed him to spread the ball evenly around and kept defenses on their toes. Buffalo has the second-best scoring offense in the NFL. Allen has also had this level of success while the Bills are ranking 29th in the NFL in pass attempts. There is still plenty of football left to be played and several primetime matchups where he will have a chance to shine.
Josh Allen has played his way into the category of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks over the past few seasons. But he has yet to get over the hump in both the individual or team success standpoint. Expect that to change this season and for Allen to be honored with his first MVP which you can capitalize on ahead of Week 5 at +350 odds.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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