In seemingly the blink of an eye, we are more than 25% through the NFL season. There is still plenty of football to be played, but the futures markets have already had some notable shifts.
Looking at the Defensive Player of the Year race- it is shaping into a two-man competition. Aidan Hutchinson and T.J. Watt have emerged as the two notable favorites and have combined for 9.5 sacks and 28 total tackles through the first four weeks. While you cannot rule out another name from emerging and making a case for themselves, here is a breakdown of the top DPOY candidates thus far with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Aidan Hutchinson (+250 odds)
It did not take long for Aidan Hutchinson to grab the sole position in the Defensive Player of the Year race. After one sack and five total tackles in the opening week of the season, Hutchinson logged the most impressive defensive performance of the season so far in Week 2. While facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Hutchinson tallied 4.5 sacks and five tackles individually.
Looking at the season as a whole, Hutchinson leads the NFL in sacks with 6.5 on the season. He is also tied for second in tackles for loss and has logged 16 total tackles in addition to one forced fumble on the season. He has been an integral part of the Detroit defense. The Lions are off to a 3-1 start to the season and look to be in the mix as true Super Bowl threats this season. While the Detroit defense ranks 21st in yards allowed, it is holding opponents to the ninth-fewest points on the year.
T.J. Watt (+350 odds)
While he has yet to have his statement performance so far this season, T.J. Watt’s impact on this Steelers team has been felt. Pittsburgh has been one of the more pleasant surprises to start this year and has started the season with a 3-1 record to currently lead the AFC North. Through the opening four weeks, Watt is tied for the 13th-most sacks with three so far. He has also added five tackles for a loss, the fifth-most in the NFL, and has 12 total tackles.
While Watt’s individual numbers do not pop, he is the most important player on an impressive Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers’ defense currently ranks second in scoring, fourth in yards allowed, ninth in turnovers and they have allowed the third-fewest first downs.
It should also be noted that Watt has been double-teamed and chipped more than any other player in the NFL. Through the first three weeks of the season, Watt was being chipped on a ridiculous 44% of snaps. This was more than double any other player in the NFL. Look for this to settle throughout the season as other members of the Steelers make their impact felt. Eight different players have found their names in the box score under sacks so far this season, which should help with this.
The Verdict
While players like Nick Bosa (+900), Maxx Crosby (+1400) or Myles Garrett (+1800) cannot be fully ruled out, both Hutchinson and Watt have climbed into a tier above. With that said, expect Watt to emerge as the winner this year. The 29-year-old has been a finalist for the award four times already in his career and won DPOY once.
There is a case to be made that Watt is the most valuable non-quarterback of all players in the NFL. Since he has entered the NFL, the Steelers are 72-34-2 when Watt has played and just 1-10 in games he has missed. His presence is felt on an every-play basis and the attention he commands opens things up for the rest of the defense.
Expect Watt to take advantage of just about any opportunity he gets in single coverage and for the stat sheet to begin to fill up throughout the season. The Wisconsin product has led the NFL in sacks in three different seasons and has eclipsed 13.0 or more sacks five times in his career. It will only help Watt’s case if the Steelers’ success continues as well.
The +350 odds are not the best value but you may never see it at a lower number this season. It is telling how narrow the odds are considering somewhat underwhelming statistical production based on Watt’s sky-high standard of play.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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