After four fun Wild Card series, the four Division Series in Major League Baseball begin this Saturday. The Guardians, Phillies, Yankees and Dodgers are all back from their few days off and will host the Tigers, Mets, Royals and Padres in four Game 1 matchups this Saturday. The four-game slate begins at 1:08 p.m. ET in Cleveland.
Three of the four series are divisional matchups, with the only exception being the Royals trying to knock off the Yankees. In these best-of-5 series, the higher seed hosts the first two games and Game 5 (if necessary). The lower seeds come in with momentum, though, after winning the Wild Card Series earlier this week.
It should be a spectacular Saturday with wall-to-wall postseason baseball, so let’s dive into my top studs and values for the full-day four-game slate.
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PITCHER
Stud
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets ($9,300) – The way the playoffs are set up we don’t get Tarik Skubal or Cole Ragans in Game 1 since they pitched earlier this week, but we do get Wheeler. Wheeler is a proven playoff performer and is coming off another excellent season. He went 16-7 in 32 starts with a 2.57 ERA and 3.13 FIP while striking out 224 batters in exactly 200 innings. Wheeler allowed just a .186 batting average at home this season, and he was dominant in the postseason last year with 35 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings to go with a 1.95 ERA.
In his 11 starts since August 1, Wheeler went 6-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 2.42 FIP, never posting fewer than six strikeouts or allowing more than two earned runs in any outing. He faced the Mets during that run and posted that run and earned 23 fantasy points against them with seven innings and eight strikeouts in a loss on Sept. 22. He bounced back with 11 strikeouts and 29.3 fantasy points in his final start of the regular season and will be ready to take the ball as the Phillies start their playoff run in the second game of the quadrupleheader Saturday.
Value
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers ($8,000) – Bibee gets the call in Game 1 for the Guardians after his impressive sophomore season. He set a new career-high with 12 wins in 31 starts and a 9.7 K/9 rate, which was a dramatic improvement over his rookie year. He posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.56 FIP in his on the season and looked sharp down the stretch.
He allowed three runs or fewer in five straight starts to finish the year, averaging over 20 fantasy points per start. He had 31 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings over that span with a 2.64 ERA and 3.59 FIP. Bibee faced the Tigers in three of his four starts in July. He gave up four runs in the first of those starts, but then held Detroit to just a total of three runs over 11 innings with six strikeouts in his other two outings.
INFIELD
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres ($6,800) – Ohtani is coming off the best regular season of all time and brings an incredible amount of fantasy upside. It helps that he can also fit either at 1B or in the OF as you try to find the space to spend up to grab him.
Even though he’s so expensive, he simply brings too much upside to ignore. He finished the year hitting .310 with a .432 wOBA, 59 homers and 54 stolen bases to average a ridiculous 13.1 fantasy points per game. He finished the season scorching hot, going 29-for-53 (.547) in his last 12 games with a .680 wOBA, seven home runs, 11 stolen bases and an average of 24.1 fantasy points per game. On top of all that, he is 4-for-15 (.267) with a pair of home runs against Padres’ starter Dylan Cease ($8,600). It was definitely the summer of Shohei, and now we’ll see if he can be successful in the postseason as well.
Stud
Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets ($5,500) – While Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,200) and Francisco Lindor ($5,400) are also premium options at SS, Turner is in the best matchup of the three since he’ll be facing Kodai Senga ($9,000) fresh off the IL for the Mets. Turner is another proven playoff option for the Phillies and can totally carry the offense if he gets hot. He was limited to 121 games this season by injury but still hit 20+ homers for the fourth straight year and added 19 stolen bases. He had six multi-hit games in his final 13 regular season contests with a .304 average and .350 wOBA since mid-September.
Value
Michael Massey, Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees ($3,800) – Massey didn’t hit leadoff at all in September, but was at the top of the batting order for both the Royals’ two wins against the Orioles. He went 3-for-8 with a double and a run scored in that spot and will likely get the call against righty Gerrit Cole ($8,300). Massey only has one stolen base on the season, so he isn’t a traditional leadoff hitter, but he hit 12 of his 14 homers against righties and had a .317 wOBA overall this season. He went 6-for-17 (.400) in his last six games during the regular season with three extra-base hits, and if he keeps hitting at the top of the order, he’s a solid way to spend under $4,000 and still get good upside.
Value
Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers ($2,400) – The Guardians called Manzardo up at on Sept. 1 when rosters expanded and the top prospect had a much more successful second stint in the MLB after struggling earlier in the season. He has regularly been hitting second in the order and represents a great way to save salary if you slide Shohei into the outfield. Manzardo hit .270 with five homers in September, compiling a .373 wOBA and 147 wRC+. Manzardo is in a premium run-producing spot if he continues to bat second, and is a great bargain who unlocks the potential to spend on stars in other spots.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers ($5,500) Tatis blasted a two-run shot in the first inning on Tuesday to set the tone on his way to 18 fantasy points. In Game 2, he went 3-for-3 with 13 more fantasy points. In the final month of the regular season, he smashed seven home runs in 22 games with a .366 wOBA and 140 wRC+. He also added three stolen bases in that span, giving him 11 steals and 21 homers in his 102 games. With his flair for the dramatic, Tatis is a very solid play vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,000) and the Dodgers in the nightcap.
Stud
Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers ($4,500) – Kwan landed on the IL with a back injury for most of September, but he homered in his first at-bat after being activated last Wednesday against the Reds. It was his 14th homer of the season, by far his career best. On the season, he hit .292 with a career-high .349 wOBA. He and Manzardo make an interesting 1-2 value stack in their matchup with the Tigers and bring some nice correlation while not costing a ton of salary.
Value
Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets ($4,000) – Castellanos started last postseason red hot but then went ice-cold against the Diamondbacks. He went 9-for-23 with four homers in the Wild Card series and NLDS but then just 1-for-24 against the D’backs in the NLCS. He has been very streaky throughout his career, and he comes into this postseason hot after hitting safely in nine straight starts to finish the year. He went 15-for-32 (.469) with two homers and a .548 wOBA
Value
Austin Hays, Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets ($2,600) – The Phillies traded for Hays from the Orioles just before the trade deadline, but the 29-year-old spent most of the last month on the IL with a kidney infection. He homered on the final Friday of the regular season for his fifth homer of the season and hit .256 with two homers and a .291 wOBA in his 22 games with the Phillies. Even though he has been limited by injury, he is my favorite bargain play in the outfield since I expect the Phillies to score plenty of runs. Hays is a cheap way to get good some exposure if he’s in Saturday’s starting lineup.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
