The Arizona Diamondbacks (80-72) continued their climb up the NL Wild Card standings on Tuesday night, taking the first game of a crucial two-game set against the San Francisco Giants (76-75) in an 8-4 final. With just a week and a half left in the regular season, both of these teams remain in desperate need of every win they can get, and they’ll each be sending stars to the mound on Wednesday afternoon: Logan Webb (10-12, 3.31 ERA) gets the ball for the Giants, while Merrill Kelly (11-7, 3.45) goes for the D-backs. First pitch from Chase Field is set for 3:40 p.m. ET.
This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with San Francisco at -115 and Arizona at -105.
Giants-Diamondbacks picks: Wednesday, September 20
Injury report
Giants
N/A
Diamondbacks
Out: RP Scott McGough (shoulder)
Starting pitchers
Logan Webb vs. Merrill Kelly
Despite getting some of the worst run support in the Majors, Webb just keeps on chugging: The righty has put up four straight quality starts, including just one combined run over 14 innings in his last two outings against the Colorado Rockies. He’s pitched very well against Arizona, going seven innings in all three of his outings and posting a 2.57 ERA with a .167 batting average against. Webb won’t rack up a ton of strikeouts, but his sinker/changeup combo is nearly impossible to square up, producing among the highest ground-ball rates in the Majors.
Kelly has been rock-solid all year for Arizona, and the second half has been no different, with two or fewer runs allowed in six of his nine starts since August 1. When he does get hit, however, he’s been hit hard: Kelly has allowed seven runs in two of his last four, on the road against the Dodgers to close out August and at home against the Mets in his most recent outing. He also struggled in his one start against San Francisco earlier this season, giving up seven runs (five earned) on 10 hits in five innings of work.
Over/Under pick
Despite Kelly’s last outing, I’m still taking the under here. These are two very reliable starters on the mound today, and the D-backs have hit just .237/.313/.374 as a team so far in September. They’ve yet to solve Webb this season, and if the Giants righty excels again, I think that puts too much pressure on a middling San Francisco offense to clear this total.
Pick: Under 7.5
Moneyline pick
Webb has been hung out to dry by his offense all year, but I think he gets just enough run support to snag a win this afternoon. Kelly got rocked in his last outing, and the Giants hit him hard in their one prior meeting this season. If they can give Webb a couple of runs early, I think the righty can cruise.
Pick: Giants -115
