Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros, together again. After speculation ramped up on Monday night that the New York Mets — in full sell-off mode after deals for closer David Robertson, righty Max Scherzer and outfielder Mark Canha over the last few days — might next turn their attention to the 40-year-old Verlander, sure enough, we have a deal. The three-time Cy Young winner is returning to Houston, where he starred (and won two World Series rings) from 2017 to 2022, while a pair of very promising outfielders head to New York.
Full trade, per ESPN sources:
Astros receive: RHP Justin Verlander.
Mets receive: OF Drew Gilbert and OF Ryan Clifford.
Deal is done.— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 1, 2023
We don’t yet know just how much of Verlander’s contract — which is fully guaranteed for 2024 and holds a vesting option for 2025, at which point he’ll be pushing 43 — the Mets will pick up. What we do know, however, is that this deal shifts the landscape of the league. New York continues to stockpile assets and free up roster spots ahead of what could be a major reshuffling this winter. The Astros, meanwhile, are all in on a repeat bid, putting a future Hall of Famer atop a rotation that’s been a bit shakier than we’ve grown accustomed to over the past few years.
So: Who came out ahead here? What does this deal mean for each team? Let’s break it all down.
Justin Verlander trade grades
Astros: A-
First thing’s first: There is significant risk involved here for Houston. Verlander will be due a whole bunch of money over (likely) the next 2.5 years, and there’s simply no way to know how he’ll hold up — and how effective he’ll be — as he pushes into his 40s. This was already a pretty thin farm system, and dealing away Gilbert and Clifford makes it even lighter on potential impact talent to replenish the big-league club.
But GM Dana Brown and Co. recognize that their championship window is right now, and kudos to them for being willing to make the absolute most of it. Houston has cut the Texas Rangers’ lead in the AL West to just half a game, but injuries to Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. and Jose Urquidy (plus a disappointing first half from Cristian Javier) have left their rotation on a bit shakier ground than in years past. Verlander immediately solves that problem: The future Hall of Famer isn’t the strikeout force he once was, but he’s still a very good pitcher, with a 2.38 ERA since the start of June. He’s also among the league’s premier workhorses, and he’s battle-tested in October.
Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are still just 26 years old. Alex Bregman is 29. Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz look like keepers. The cupboard is still far from bare for the future, and you simply never know how many shots at a title you’re going to get. With Verlander in tow and Urquidy set to return this week, though — not to mention AL Cy Young contender Framber Valdez and promising rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France — the Astros are looking primed to defend their World Series title.
Mets: B+
Look, obviously no one expected this Mets team to be in this position come the trade deadline. But give GM Billy Eppler credit: He’s navigated this sell-off quite well. He landed two high-upside teenagers in the Robertson deal, a legitimate top prospect for Scherzer, a potential rotation arm for Canha and now potentially two impact bats for Verlander.
A first-round pick last year, Gilbert has tools for days, with plus bat speed, enough foot speed to stick in center and a very strong arm should he have to slide over to right as he matures. He’s not the biggest dude at just 5’9, but he does not get cheated, with a huge swing geared for the modern game and enough approach and barrel control to get most of that pop into games. While he’s struggled a bit in his first taste of Double-A this summer — he’s slashed .241/.342/.371 with six homers and six steals across his first 60 games — he’s also walked nearly as often as he’s struck out, and his arrow continues point up.
Clifford, meanwhile, is far more than just a throw-in. He’s not the athlete Gilbert is — at 6’3, 200 pounds, he’s already splitting time between left field and first base — but he too has a lefty swing that can do a ton of damage. He’s hit well in the Minors ever since being drafted in the 11th round last year, slashing .291/.399/.520 with 18 bombs in 83 games across Single-A and High-A this season. The lack of defensive value puts really pressure on his ability to hit, and we’ve yet to see the hit tool tested against high-Minors pitching, but if it clicks, look out.
So that’s five Minor Leaguers so far, at least four of whom could very well wind up on top-100 lists at the start of next season, with a nice mix of low-Minors upside and high-Minors proximity — all for pitchers over the age of 38. Scherzer and Verlander are big names, but they’re also expensive ones who are tough to project moving forward; we simply don’t have the ability to confidently project someone’s age-40 or age-41 season, and odds were that the Mets were going to have to address the rotation this winter to accommodate that risk anyway. Eppler has restocked New York’s farm system on the fly, and he’s done so without significantly hampering the team’s ability to compete as soon as 2024.
