The PGA TOUR returns this week and heads to Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship. The Country Club of Jackson will host and measures as a 7,461-yard par 72 with Bermuda grass greens.
We are back to a full-field, 36-hole cut event after last week’s Presidents Cup, and this will be the first of the remaining seven fall-swing events left on the calendar.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Adam Svensson to win (+3500)
Svensson has been playing some really good golf of late. He closed the 2024 season with a T7 at the Wyndham Championship, and then followed that up with a T13 at the Procore Championship, which was the first event of the fall. He has seemed to figure out his flat stick during this stretch, as he’s now gained a whopping 11.9 strokes on the greens over his past two starts.
Svensson has always been known for his elite ball-striking, so it’s quite nice to see his putter peaking before a very winnable tournament this week in Mississippi. Surprisingly, over those two aforementioned starts, the Canadian lost strokes both with his irons and off the tee, but that’s not something that should be expected to last.
Svensson ranks 16th in that SG: Ball-Striking over the past 48 rounds in this field, while sitting fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green in the same time frame. He will revert back to his baseline sooner rather than later.
He’s already shown he could win on the PGA TOUR as well, having taken down the RSM Classic back in 2022, while also winning three separate times on the Korn Ferry Tour in his career. Svensson posted a T16 at this event last year, which was his best finish to date at the CC of Jackson. With the way he’s currently playing, combined with the lack of field strength this week, this 35/1 number is quite enticing on the World No. 97.
Henrik Norlander to win (+6000)
A name you don’t normally see in this column, Norlander simply has been playing too well right now to be ignored. He opened the 2024 season with a pair of top-15 finishes at the Puerto Rico and Mexico Opens, and then continued that strong play all the way through to the summer.
Norlander then posted a T11 at the Barracuda, T12 at the 3M Open and then most recently a T8 at the Omega European Masters on the DP World Tour. Over the past 24 rounds in this field, the big Swede ranks fifth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, 10th in SG: Ball-Striking and 18th in Total Strokes gained.
We didn’t even get to the best part yet, which is his course history at the CC of Jackson. Norlander absolutely loves this event, having finished T4 or better three of the past four years, including a T2 last year where he was in the five man playoff that Luke List ultimately won.
Norlander has plenty of high finishes throughout his career, but has yet to capture that elusive first PGA TOUR victory. The stars definitely seem to be aligning for him this week, however, as his exquisite course history will collide with his red-hot recent form in a very bad field. Sign me up at 60/1.
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