Sam Darnold checks all the boxes when it comes to thinking about quarterbacks. He has excellent size at 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds. He is a four-star recruit in high school. Strong arm. Handsome. Productive college career. Selected with the third overall pick in the NFL draft.
Unfortunately, his career did not develop the way many envisioned. He was battered and bruised playing for a poor Jets team, to the point that he started seeing ghosts. After three seasons in NYC, he was traded to Carolina, spent two seasons there and was signed by the San Francisco 49ers after being released. He was the backup and attempted a total of 46 passes.
With Kirk Cousins taking his talents to Atlanta, and the Minnesota Vikings selecting JJ McCarthy in the draft, Darnold was positioned to be a bridge for a few games before the McCarthy era began. But McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury and Darnold was thrust into the pilot seat.
And the way he’s guiding this Vikings offense, Top Gun may have interest in his services. Much of the credit must go to Kevin O’Connell for scheming the plays and putting his players in the best position to succeed, but Darnold still has to read the defense, figure out where to go with the ball and deliver it.
Through three games, Darnold has completed 53-of-78 passes for 657 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. In PPR leagues, he’s scored 59.8 points, the fourth-most at the quarterback position. He currently has a quarterback rating of 117.3, the eighth-best in the NFL. Per Next Gen Stats, the 5.6 Total EPA is the 10th-best.
As a result, DK Sportsbook has him at +3000 to win the MVP, the 11th-lowest odds.
It’s Week 4. There’s a looooooooot of football left to be played.
Darnold has been very good, but defenses are going to adjust. While O’Connell will be valuable in helping him adjust to the adjustments, the only way Darnold becomes a serious MVP contender is if the Vikings win. And the Vikings will win, not because of Darnold, but due to their defense and run game.
Currently, Minnesota is 19th in passing rate and the defense has held the Giants to six points, the 49ers to 17 points and the Texans to seven points. Has Darnold played well? He has, but he’s been playing from ahead and has yet to throw 30 times in a game. In addition, the numbers have been very good, but they have been heightened due to the struggles of the rest of the field. Once they heat up, some of the shine will be dulled.
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