In the first two games of the season, the Panthers had a passing success rate of 25% with Bryce Young under center. Since NFL’s Next Gen Stats began tracking data in 2016, there has never been a number under 30%. From a game perspective, Young’s Week 2 performance against the Los Angeles Chargers was the fourth-worst among quarterbacks that attempted at least 20 passes.
Young’s poor play also had an adverse effect on the running game, as drives couldn’t be maintained and defenses could stack the box and compress down towards the line of scrimmage. As a result, the Panthers had the second-worst rushing success rate over the first two weeks.
For Week 3, Andy Dalton was inserted at quarterback and went 26-of-37 for 319 yards and three touchdowns. The Panthers were able to lead in time of possession, 36 to 24 minutes, and ran a whopping 70 offensive plays.
Due to Dalton’s ability to slice and dice the Raiders secondary, seams in the running game opened up and Chuba Hubbard benefitted, rushing 21 times for 114 yards. Per Next Gen Stats, he rushed for 33 yards over expectation. In addition, he caught all five targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers had the eighth-best rushing success rate in Week 3 at 48.4%.
Hubbard only received 58% of the snaps in Week 3, though, compared to 42% for Miles Sanders, but he had 21 carries and five targets while Sanders received seven carries and two targets. Hubbard also had five red zone opportunites to Sanders’ two.
Dalton is a grizzled veteran but can still sling it at 37 years old. Two years ago was the last time he received significant playing time, and he started 14 games, completed 66.7% of his passes and threw 18 touchdowns with nine interceptions.
What gives me optimism that Week 3 wasn’t a fluke is that Dave Canales is the head coach. Last year as the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he resurrected Baker Mayfield’s career.
Will we see that kind of production from Dalton? I’m not expecting that, but the Panthers should at least be somewhat respectable, which should allow for the running backs to at least see opportunities to score some fantasy goodies.
Hubbard is a low-end fantasy starter because of his involvement on the ground, through the air and in the red zone. Sanders is still in the mix, though, and while Dalton is a massive upgrade over Young, the Panthers still won’t be one of the elite offenses in the league. Finally, Jonathan Brooks could enter the fray at some point.
Hubbard was a popular best ball pick because he was so cheap and there were bullish vibes regarding the Panthers offense. For season-long leagues, Hubbard was likely drafted, but if he’s available, he should be scooped up. As for Week 4 in the DFS streets, Hubbard is priced at $5,700, Dalton should be fired up to play against his former team and the Bengals have allowed a Rush EPA of 5.0, the sixth-most generous in the league.
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