Teams are starting to clinch playoff spots as the MLB season winds down. I’ll give you some of my favorite MLB bets for tonight’s Thursday slate of baseball on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Game total over 8 runs –115
The Cardinals might be feeling some buyers remorse with their trade deadline acquisition of Erick Fedde. After a really strong first half, Fedde has regressed quite a bit in the second half. He currently has a 4.42 ERA with a .329 wOBA and a 5.10 FIP through 53 innings. While neither side of the plate has particualrly hit him hard, he has allowed nine home runs through the second half, which isn’t a great sign for a sinkerball pitcher. The Pirates aren’t a great team against sinkers but do have some success against it., particularly Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen. It’s hard to trust Fedde right now, who is allowing a lot of hard contact.
For the Pirates, they’ll be starting Luis Ortiz. He has a solid 3.45 ERA but it’s accompanied by an xERA of 4.41. Since the beginning of August, Ortiz has allowed at least four runs in four of his eight starts. The ball has been flying out of the park as well. Through the first half, which spanned 66.2 innings he gave up three home runs. In the second half, through 56 innings, he’s now allowed 12! For someone who doesn’t have overpowering stuff, he’s not generating enough ground balls to be effective. His ground ball rate his dropped from 43% in the first half to 32% in the second.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Pick: Brewers alternate team total over 4.5 +140
When I saw that Brandon Pfaadt was pitching, I fully expected the Brewers team total to be at 4.5 runs. The surprise I had when I saw it was set at 3.5 -125. So I said, you know what, I’m going to pay the +140 for what I was expecting already. This is one of my favorite MLB bets tonight.
I’m shocked at the 3.5 team total when you look at how Pfaadt has been pitching. He has a 6.58 ERA with a .355 wOBA in the second half of the season! He’s allowed at least four runs in five of his last six starts, including EIGHT against the Brewers five days ago. I mean, what am I missing here? I’m not expecting the Brewers to put up another eight runs against him but you’re telling me that can’t score at least four runs? The bullpen isn’t going to provide much relief either. Over the past week, which spans 24.2 innings, the D-Backs relievers have a 7.30 ERA with a 6.41 FIP. I’m at a bit of a loss honestly, so I will HAPPILY take an alternate total of 4.5 runs at +140.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
The Pick: Jonathan Aranda over 1.5 H/R/RBI +100
We have an opportunity to double up our money if Aranda can go over 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs tonight. I like this spot for him batting cleanup against Bryan Bello. Lefties have given him trouble throughout the year, as he currently owns a .357 wOBA against them. Aranda is someone who has handled what Bello throws well. Against righties, Aranda has a .331 wOBA against sinkers, a .332 against sliders and a .381 against the changeups.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
