There is an exciting slate of games for Week 3 of the college football season. These are some bets to make for Saturday’s games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Saturday Slate
You can read my favorite player props for the weekend here. These are my favorite sides and totals for Saturday’s games.
Alabama-Wisconsin u49
Alabama survived a shaky game against South Florida last week. The final score doesn’t look too bad for Alabama but it was a 1-point game entering the fourth quarter before Alabama secured the victory late. Jalen Milroe hasn’t looked great in the new Alabama offense so far; he was held to under 200 passing yards by South Florida. Wisconsin has a well-coached secondary and should be able to take away the Alabama’s passing threat. Alabama also has a couple of major injuries on the offensive line that could limit their offense.
The Alabama defense has had some issues in the secondary but they haven’t played a quarterback who can exploit that weakness yet. Wisconsin’s Tyler Van Dyke is also not a guy who will really be able to exploit that weakness so Alabama’s defense should be safe for another week. Overall, this defense is fifth in the nation in defensive success rate and should keep Wisconsin in check. Both offenses should struggle to move the ball so I am betting on the under in this spot.
LSU-South Carolina u48
These teams match up perfectly with each other. LSU has a great passing offense but South Carolina is 3rd in the country in EPA/pass allowed. LSU’s weakness is their passing defense, but South Carolina ranks 97th in the country in EPA/pass on offense. Basically, South Carolina’s defense should be able to contain the LSU offense and the South Carolina offense can’t exploit the LSU defense.
In addition to the matchups, there is a possibility of rain and wind in the area on Saturday. That would give an advantage to the defenses as rain and wind impact the offensive passing game more than anything. South Carolina already wants to run the ball on almost every play but LSU will also be without their starting DT, Jacobian Guillory. South Carolina will be incentivized to run the ball more. They also has one of the best punters in the country and should be able to pin LSU deep. This game should be full of slow, methodical drives and defensive stops in important moments so I am betting on the under here.
Oregon -16.5 vs. Oregon State
Oregon has looked a bit shaky in their first two games but both of their opponents are underrated. Idaho went on the road and beat Wyoming last week and Boise State is probably the best Group of Five team in the country. Oregon has a very talented team and they have advantages across the board against Oregon State. The Beavers have no threat in the passing game so Oregon will be able to load up the box and sell out to stop the run. Oregon should also lean on their own run game for the first time this season and control the game.
Pittsburgh +1 vs. West Virginia
Pittsburgh and WVU have one of the most underrated rivalries in all of college football. This should be a great game between two teams that want to play differently. Pittsburgh wants to move the ball with extreme tempo on offense and their transfer QB Eli Holstein has looked really solid through two games. Overall, they are 27th in the country in offensive success rate and should be able to move the ball against West Virginia.
West Virginia wants to run the ball as much as possible which is good news for the Pitt defense. Pitt is 100th in EPA/pass allowed but is 37th in EPA/rush allowed. They should be able to slow down Garrett Greene and the WVU rushing offense just enough to control this game. It should be a fun back-and-forth game but ultimately Pitt should emerge with a victory.
Washington -5 vs. Washington State
Washington’s offense has looked really smooth to start the year. Transfer QB Will Rogers seems to be a good fit for Jedd Fisch’s system and Giles Jackson has been explosive so far this season. The Washington run game led by Jonah Coleman and a strong offensive line has also been great. The Huskies are 14th in the nation in EPA/pass and 12th in EPA/rush. When a team does both of those things that well, they become incredibly difficult to defend.
Washington State’s numbers looked good against Texas Tech. However, that doesn’t tell the full story. Texas Tech gifted the Cougars four turnovers and were missing their best offensive player, among other injuries. Washington State will face by far their toughest defensive test of the season thus far. Their offense, which has been explosive through the first two games, should look slower. Washington should win this game by a touchdown or more.
Colorado State +7 vs. Colorado
Things are a mess for Colorado at the moment. Their defense is in bad shape, ranking 102 in EPA/play against the pass. Their offensive line has been horrific and they have no run game at all to complement their passing game. Against Colorado State, they should be able to move the ball through the air but if the Rams can rush Shedeur Sanders with just four players, it will give them a huge advantage defensively. Colorado State has a great QB-WR connection and should be able to throw on this Colorado secondary that ranks so poorly against the pass.
Colorado is just trying to keep their head above water, while for Colorado State this is effectively their Super Bowl. Their players have been talking to the media this week about how much this game means to them and how angry they are about losing this matchup in overtime last season. Colorado State should be the more motivated team in this spot playing up to a Big 12 opponent, especially one with as much media attention as Colorado. Colorado has struggled under Deion Sanders when they are favored. They are just 1-3-1 ATS as favorites since the start of last season. Colorado State should keep it within this number and have a chance to win the game.
Georgia 1H -13.5 vs. Kentucky
Kentucky looked horrible against South Carolina last week. Their offensive line got decimated and they had no passing game whatsoever. Kentucky finished with 30 total passing yards and threw a pick-six to South Carolina. The Georgia defense is one of the best in the country and should do the exact same thing that South Carolina did, if not worse. As long as Georgia is playing their starters and motivated, Kentucky shouldn’t be able to score. That is why I am betting on the first-half line instead of the full game line.
Kentucky’s defense is decent against the rush but bad against the pass. LaNorris Sellers couldn’t throw downfield against Old Dominion in Week 1 but found guys wide-open against Kentucky last week. A Heisman contender like Carson Beck should be able to pick this defense apart with minimal effort. Georgia should be able to name the score in this game. The only worry is that they call off the troops with a big lead in the second half and Kentucky manages to get in the back door. That is why the best bet on this game is Georgia to cover the first half spread.
Indiana -3 vs. UCLA
Indiana has won their first two games by a combined score of 108-10. They haven’t played any real competition yet but it has been the perfect way for Curt Cignetti to get his team rolling heading into their first Big Ten game against UCLA. On the other side, UCLA has looked really shaky, just narrowly beating Hawaii in their only game so far this season. There is a chance UCLA is really bad and Cignetti will want to make a statement in his first Big Ten game so he should have his team totally prepared for this game.
Indiana has a huge coaching advantage with Curt Cignetti. UCLA’s offensive line looked terrible against Hawaii and the Hoosiers have better athletes and better coaches on the defensive side of the ball. This could quickly turn into a blowout win for Indiana if UCLA gives up a couple of early scores. Indiana has an incredible QB-WR duo in Kurtis Rourke and Elijah Surratt and they should be really hard to stop for the UCLA defense.
UCF +1 vs. TCU
This game basically comes down to whether or not TCU can stop the run. UCF is not disguising anything, they want to run the ball on almost every single play with their three-headed monster of KJ Jefferson, Peny Boone, and RJ Harvey. They have dominated both of their opponents so far this season and rank comfortably first in the country in rushing with over 400 yards per game. TCU has been decent against the run so far, ranking 21st in defensive EPA/rush but in their only real game of the season against Stanford, they weren’t even interested in running the ball.
TCU has a lot of issues on the offensive line and UCF has some studs on the defensive line. UCF is 11th in defensive EPA/rush and TCU doesn’t have much of a running threat regardless. TCU will be forced to throw the ball for most of this game and UCF should be able to get after the passer and force some mistakes and create negative plays.
Place your College Football bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
