The NFL is finally back and there are plenty of bets to make as the season gets underway. Here is how to bet on these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 1
These are all of my best bets for the Week 1 NFL slate. Click the link in the heading for each game to read my full preview for that game.
Patriots +7.5 vs. Bengals o/u 40.5
The Bengals’ offense won’t be at full strength with Tee Higgins doubtful and Ja’Marr Chase questionable to play on Sunday. That being said, Joe Burrow still has weapons to work with here and the Bengals should lean on their run game. The Patriots’ offense led by Jacoby Brissett could really struggle with an inexperienced offensive line and no elite skill position players. Trying to cover a big number in Week 1 can be tough but the Bengals will take care of business and win this game so I am putting them in a teaser with the Cowboys.
Best Bet: Bengals -1.5/Cowboys +8.5 6-point Teaser
Cowboys +2.5 vs. Browns o/u 41
The Browns have one of the best defenses in the NFL and they should make it hard on the Cowboys to move the football. On the other side, the Browns offense isn’t the same without Nick Chubb and there were some concerning reports around Deshaun Watson’s play in camp this summer. The Cowboys have a great pass rush and they should give Watson some problems. The Browns will look to run the football to grind the clock and let their defense lead the way. This should be a low-scoring tight game the whole way so I am including the Cowboys in my teaser and betting the under.
Best Bet: Bengals -1.5/Cowboys +8.5 6-point Teaser, Cowboys-Browns u41
Jaguars +3.5 vs. Dolphins o/u 49.5
The Jaguars got some new weapons for Trevor Lawrence this offseason and that offense should be really productive. The Dolphins had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season and should again this season with all of their big weapons returning. Both of these also brought in new defensive coordinators this offseason so it could take some time for the players to adjust to their new system. I am rolling with the over in this game because both teams should be able to create explosive plays.
Best Bet: Jaguars-Dolphins o49
Cardinals +6.5 vs. Bills o/u 47.5
The Cardinals get a healthy Kyler Murray to start the season and his new top target WR Marvin Harrison Jr. will make his NFL debut. The Cardinals should have a really solid offense if Murray can stay healthy. The Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason but they drafted Keon Coleman and they’re hoping that Dalton Kincaid can make the jump to be one of the best tight ends in the league. Despite Josh Allen being one of the best quarterbacks in the league, I am more confident in what the Cardinals have on offense. The Bills’ defense is also weak at the safety position and can be beaten through the air. The Cardinals should keep this close and could win this game outright.
Best Bet: Cardinals +6.5
Steelers +3.5 vs. Falcons o/u 41.5
There is a chance that Russell Wilson will miss his first game as a Steeler as he is dealing with a calf injury. That would put Justin Fields in line to start the game for Pittsburgh. The Steelers should take a very run-heavy approach in this game. The Falcons have AJ Terrell at corner to take away George Pickens and outside of Pickens, the Steelers don’t have real threats at wide receiver. Kirk Cousins didn’t play in the preseason for Atlanta and missed most of last season with an Achilles injury. So there is a chance Cousins is rusty in this game and the Falcons also lean on the ground game. Neither offense should be able to get anything explosive in this game so I am betting it to stay under the total.
Best Bet: Steelers-Falcons u42
Vikings -1.5 vs. Giants o/u 41
Sam Darnold will be playing quarterbacks for the Vikings to start this season. Between Kevin O’Connell calling plays and Justin Jefferson at wide receiver, this will be the best situation of Darnold’s career. The Vikings’ offense should be really solid if Darnold can avoid mistakes. The Giants got WR Malik Nabers through the draft but they are still lacking on offense. Daniel Jones has not been good enough at quarterback and without Saquon Barkley they have taken a step back at running back as well. Brian Flores is an elite defensive coordinator and he should scheme up blitzes to make things really hard on Jones. The Vikings have the better coaching staff and the better offensive weapons which should get them the win.
Best Bet: Vikings -1.5
Titans +3.5 vs. Bears o/u 44.5
Caleb Williams will make his first NFL start in this game and the Bears should have a fun offense. The Bears’ defense was also playing great by the end of last season and should be a solid unit. However, the Titans had one of the best off-seasons of any team. They added CB Quandre Diggs, CB L’Jarius Sneed, LB Ernest Jones IV and rookie DT T’Vondre Sweat to their defense so that should be a much-improved unit. The Titans also got Will Levis some weapons in the form of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. I really like this Bears team long-term but in this game, the Titans should be able to keep it within the number.
Best Bet: Titans +3.5
Panthers +4 vs. Saints o/u 41.5
The Panthers are another team that had a great offseason. They bolstered their offensive line and got Bryce Young some weapons in rookie WR Xavier Legette and former Steelers WR Diontae Johnson. Most importantly, they brought in a great offensive coach, Dave Canales, to improve Bryce Young’s game. The Saints are lacking at wide receiver outside of Chris Olave so the Panthers can sell out to make sure he is covered. The Saints are also really weak on the offensive line and the Panthers should give Derek Carr some problems. I like the Panthers to win this game outright so I love the +4.
Best Bet: Panthers +4
Texans -3 vs. Colts o/u 48.5
CJ Stroud was incredible last season and they gave him even more weapons to work with this season in WR Stefon Diggs and RB Joe Mixon. This should be one of the best offenses in the NFL if everyone stays healthy. The Colts get back Anthony Richardson at quarterback after he missed most of last season with an injury. Richardson could have some rust after not playing a real football game for so long, although he did see some preseason action. The Colts are going to be missing their #2 wide receiver, Josh Downs, for this game and the Texans should be able to slow down what they want to do offensively. The Texans should get the win here.
Best Bet: Texans -3
Broncos +6 vs. Seahawks o/u 41.5
It is always difficult for rookie quarterbacks in their first game, but Bo Nix needs to go on the road to an incredibly hostile environment in Seattle. With what the Broncos have at wide receiver, Seattle should be able to be aggressive with their blitzes and force Nix to make mistakes. Offensively, the Seahawks are in a great spot. Geno Smith has so many weapons to work with and Kenneth Walker has proven to be a consistently solid running back. The Seahawks should just be too much for the Broncos in this one.
Best Bet: Seahawks -6
Raiders +3 vs. Chargers o/u 39.5
This will be Jim Harbaugh’s first game as Chargers head coach and Antonio Pierce’s first game as full-time head coach of the Raiders after being the interim head coach for part of last season. Both of these teams should have a pretty conservative approach to this game and should be tight and low-scoring the whole way. The Raiders, in particular, should have a run-heavy offensive approach and if the Chargers can take away Davante Adams, it should be hard for Gardner Minshew to get anything going. Therefore, I am betting his passing yards under as my best bet in this game.
Best Bet: Gardner Minshew u220.5 passing yards
Commanders +3.5 vs. Bucs o/u 42.5
Jayden Daniels is the third rookie QB making his first start in Week 1, along with Nix and Williams. The Bucs should be able to get some pressure on Daniels in this game but that allows him to flush out of the pocket and make plays on the move, which is what he wants to do. The Bucs’ offense could take a step back from where they were last season without Dave Canales calling plays. As a starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield is 14-26-1 (35%) ATS when his team is the favorite. It is hard to trust him and the Buccaneers to win this game by more than a field goal so I will be backing Jayden Daniels to cover the spread in his first career start.
Best Bet: Commanders +3.5
Rams +4.5 vs. Lions o/u 52.5
The Rams and Lions will be doing battle on Sunday Night Football in a rematch of last year’s playoff game in Detroit. Matt Stafford has a plethora of weapons to work with and the Rams’ passing attack should be strong. The Lions have a top-tier run defense so the Rams have even more reason to have an aggressive pass-heavy approach. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown should pick up right where they left off and also move the ball through the air. These offenses should trade blows all game so I am rolling with the over on Sunday Night Football.
Best Bet: Rams-Lions o52
Jets +4.5 vs. 49ers o/u 43.5
Aaron Rodgers makes his return on Monday Night Football. If Rodgers stays healthy, this should be the most improved offense in the NFL. The Jets were dead-last in offensive DVOA last season but Rodgers is a massive upgrade at quarterback and the Jets also bolstered their offensive line. The Jets’ defense was a top-5 defense in the NFL last season and should be again this season. The 49ers will be a great team again this season but they could be a bit out of sync with Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams all missing significant practice time heading into Week 1. Super Bowl losers (the 49ers) are 5-19 (20.8%) ATS and 10-14 SU in their first game the following season. I am rolling with the Jets to cover in San Francisco.
Best Bet: Jets +4.5
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
