Aaron Rodgers returns as the Jets take on the defending NFC champions, the 49ers, on Monday Night Football. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
**Editors note 7:05 p.m. ET 9/9/24: 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (Achilles/Ankle) will be inactive tonight vs. the Jets.
Jets +4.5 vs. 49ers o/u 43.5
Jets Team Breakdown
The Jets are a mixed bag when it comes to people’s expectations for them. Some people believe that with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, they are a real Super Bowl contender. Others think it is laughable that Rodgers will stay healthy and the Jets will have another failed season. They should by no means be Super Bowl favorites, but there is no reason why this team can’t compete in the AFC. Heading into Week 1, the Jets are favorites to win the AFC East and are expected to make the postseason.
The Jets won seven games last season despite getting the worst quarterback play of any team in the NFL last season. The Jets’ offense ranked last in the league in EPA/play and last in offensive DVOA. This team had two of the bottom three quarterbacks in the NFL when looking at EPA+CPOE composite (min. 150 attempts) with Zach Wilson in 43rd and Tim Boyle dead last in 45th (Bailey Zappe was 44th for those interested). That is why the signing of QB Tyrod Taylor was so important. If Rodgers was to get hurt again, the Jets would have a quarterback with a lot of NFL experience who has proven he can win games in Taylor.
The Jets still managed to win seven games with that offense because their defense was elite. They ranked 3rd in defensive DVOA and 3rd in EPA/play allowed. That is despite being put in really tough positions by their offense all season. The special teams were also elite, finishing 5th in special teams DVOA. The Jets brought back both placekicker Greg Zuerlein and punter Thomas Morstead so the special teams should be elite once again.
New York also returned most of their defense from last year, although they are still waiting to see if DE Haason Reddick, who the Jets traded for this offseason, will show up to play this season. The Jets made a nice signing by adding former 49ers DT Javon Kinlaw to bolster their depth on the defensive line. This team arguably has the best cornerbacks in the NFL led by Sauce Gardner, the best LB corps in the NFL led by CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams, and the best defensive tackle in the NFL with Quinnen Williams. This defense will be one of the top units in the NFL once again.
Apart from the quarterbacks, the offensive line was the Jets’ other glaring weakness. The Jets get back Alijah Vera-Tucker who sustained a season-ending injury last season and added all-pro left tackle Tyron Smith. They also added experienced linemen LG John Simpson and RT Morgan Moses. Just to be safe, the Jets also used their first-round pack on stud LT Olu Fashanu. If they can stay healthy, this line will be dramatically improved from last season. That should allow RB Breece Hall to put up even bigger numbers and Aaron Rodgers to have more time to find WR Garrett Wilson, two young breakout stars.
49ers Team Breakdown
The 49ers might just have the most talented roster in the NFL top to bottom. The problem is they don’t have a quarterback as good as Patrick Mahomes and that prevented them from winning a Super Bowl last season. That being said, Brock Purdy actually had the best statistical season of any QB in the league. With weapons like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey it seems easy, but Purdy has emerged as a legitimately great quarterback in his own right.
The 49ers were in a precarious situation with Aiyuk and all-pro LT Trent Williams both holding out for new contracts. The 49ers did get both situations resolved though and both players are expected to be ready to go on Monday night. This team will return mostly all of their starters on both sides of the ball, but they will be starting rookie third-round pick Dominick Puni at right guard. Quinnen Williams will be an unbelievably tough task for the rookie’s first start.
Linebacker Dre Greenlaw will miss the start of the season after tearing his Achilles in the Super Bowl. That is one player the 49ers could really miss this season both from a productivity and a leadership standpoint. Other than that, this defense that finished 4th in defensive DVOA last season should be really good again.
Pick and Prediction
There are a lot of notable trends to note before betting on this game:
- Aaron Rodgers is the most profitable QB in the NFL since his first start in 2008. Rodgers is 140-100-5 (58.3%) ATS as a starter in his career.
- Since 2020, Rodgers is 10-3 (77%) ATS as an underdog.
- In their last seven home games, the 49ers are 0-7 ATS and just 4-3 SU.
- Underdogs in Monday Night Football games in Week 1 are 29-12-1 (70.7%) ATS.
- Aaron Rodgers has won ten straight Monday Night Football games where he was the starter.
- Super Bowl losers (the 49ers) are 5-19 (20.8%) ATS and 10-14 SU in their first game the following season. The 49ers were in this position in 2020 and lost outright as 6.5-point home favorites against the Cardinals.
All of that being said, I am betting on the Jets to cover this game. The Jets upset the Bills on Monday Night Football last season despite Rodgers going down with his injury early on in the game. If Rodgers can stay healthy for this game, and this season, the quarterback play will be exponentially improved. Even if Tyrod Taylor has to come in at any point, the quarterback play will be much better than under Wilson.
The 49ers are a fantastic team but that “Super Bowl hangover” trend exists for a reason. In what could have been their ring ceremony game, they are instead reminded of what could have been, and energy levels could be slightly low. The Jets are a really hard team to defend with weapons like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, especially with an improved offensive line.
While Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams, and Christian McCaffrey are all expected to play, all three players still had minimal reps throughout the summer and they could be just a bit out of sync in this first game of the year. Particularly with McCaffrey, who is so important to the 49ers and a little bit banged up, Kyle Shanahan could be pretty conservative with his usage rate in this first game.
The Jets defense should keep them in this game the whole way and that old Aaron Rodgers magic could just be enough for the Jets to find an upset win in Week 1. However, just to be safe, I am taking the points and betting on the Jets to keep it within 4.5.
Best Bet: Jets +4.5
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