Jayden Daniels will make his first NFL start for the Commanders against Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Commanders (+3.5) vs. Buccaneers o/u 42.5
Commanders Team Breakdown
The Commanders are one of three teams to start a rookie quarterback in Week 1. Jayden Daniels will be at the reigns for the Commanders as their eighth different Week 1 starting quarterback in the past eight seasons. Daniels is a great runner and can move around outside of the pocket to extend plays and create magic. The biggest thing to watch for is how he makes throws at the NFL level. At LSU, he had the best receiving corps in the country and his guys were often open by a good margin. At the NFL level, he will have to be incredibly precise with his passing.
This Commanders receiving corps is headlined by Terry McLaurin but there is a steep drop-off after that. Rookie fourth-round pick Luke McCaffrey will be starting at wide receiver, as will Olamide Zaccheaus. Opposing defenses will be able to focus heavily on McLaurin and make the other receivers beat them. Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler make for a solid backfield, however, and along with Daniels they should have a decent rushing attack if this offensive line can hold up.
Defensively, the Commanders had a lot of turnover. They signed four new defensive starters including veteran LB Bobby Wagner this offseason. They will also be starting rookie CB Mike Sainristil right away. This defense should be really solid against the rush with their defensive line but they have a very inexperienced secondary.
Buccaneers Team Breakdown
The Buccaneers had a great 2023 season that culminated in winning a playoff game against the Eagles. Baker Mayfield had a surprisingly great year but his offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, left for Carolina. Liam Coen will be the new offensive coordinator who has had an odd career arc bouncing back and forth between college football and the NFL. Coen is definitely a downgrade from Canales for the Buccaneers and there is a chance we see major regression from Mayfield this season.
The Bucs still have a great group of skill position players with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and rookie WR Jalen McMillan. The Bucs did use their first-round pick on center Graham Barton who will be the immediate starter. It is always tough for a center to start their first game in the NFL so that could also be tough in this new Liam Coen offense.
In addition to Barton, the Bucs will be starting another rookie at cornerback, third-rounder Tykee Smith. As a whole, this Bucs defense will look much different without Devin White, Shaq Barrett and Carlton Davis. They should still be solid on the defensive side of the ball but there could be regression from last year’s unit that finished 14th in defensive DVOA.
Pick and Prediction
The Bucs should be able to apply a decent pass rush, but that almost plays into the hands of Jayden Daniels who wants to get out of the pocket and make plays with his arm and his legs. In the secondary, the Bucs can be exploited even though the Commanders don’t have a stellar wide receiver group. The Commanders should be able to have a reasonable amount of success moving the ball.
The Bucs’ offense is due for some major regression after losing Dave Canales. The Commanders should be able to apply pressure with their defensive tackles against a rookie center and get to Baker Mayfield who really struggles with internal pressure.
As a starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield is 14-26-1 (35%) ATS when his team is the favorite. It is hard to trust him and the Buccaneers to win this game by more than a field goal so I will be backing Jayden Daniels to cover the spread in his first career start.
Best Bet: Commanders +3.5
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