Only four remain! The US Open men’s singles semi-finals take place on Friday in New York. In this article, I’ll break down my top DraftKings Sportsbook pick for the match between the two remaining Americans, Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe. Stay tuned for new US Open best bets daily!
Without further ado, let’s get into it.
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Taylor Fritz Over 21.5 Total Games Won vs. Frances Tiafoe (-120)
Quite frankly, the lines for this match seem pretty sharp. I was hoping to write up a spread play for Fritz, but 4.5 is just a little too large to have the utmost confidence in.
Instead, I’m opting for a pretty sizable game total over on Taylor Fritz’s side. 21.5 can be a daunting number, but let me break down how I expect this match to play out.
First of all, I need a quick detour to express my excitement that we’re getting a guaranteed American in a Grand Slam final, let alone the US Open final. No man from the States has won a Slam since Andy Roddick did so at this very event in 2003. There’s legitimate reason for hope too, as both Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic have already been knocked out. Jannik Sinner is a phenomenal talent in strong form, but he’s not quite as intimidating as those other two at the top of the tour.
Anyway, back to the contest at hand. To say Fritz has dominated this matchup over the years would be an understatement. The 26-year-old has won six straight duels against Tiafoe, who hasn’t been victorious against Fritz since 2016. Over the course of those eight-plus years they’ve met just once in a Grand Slam, with Fritz winning in straight sets at the 2022 Australian Open.
Obviously, that can’t be the case tonight if he’s going to clear the 21.5 game total. Taylor is in fantastic form heading into his first career Grand Slam semi-final, winning back-to-back matches against Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev. However, the same can be said for his opponent, as Tiafoe has defeated Ben Shelton, Alexei Popyrin and Grigor Dimitrov — technically a walkover but the match was virtually decided — to reach this point.
While I expect Fritz to ultimately win this match and continue his streak of dominance against Tiafoe, it’s hard to imagine him doing so in straight sets. If Taylor wins each of his three sets without a tiebreak, he’d need at least four games in the other set to hit this over. That’s doable, and becomes increasingly so if at least one goes to a tiebreak.
That’s my top DraftKings Sportsbook pick for Fritz vs. Tiafoe! Stay tuned for more US Open best bets later this week.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
