After keeping pace in the NL Wild Card race with a huge win on Friday night, the Miami Marlins (73-68) look to make it two in a row in the second game of their three-game set with the division rival Philadelphia Phillies (77-63) on Saturday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:05 p.m. ET. Miami will give the ball to veteran righty Johnny Cueto (1-3, 5.54 ERA), while Philly counters with Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.55).
The Phillies enter as -185 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Marlins at +154. The run total is set at 9.
Marlins-Phillies picks: Saturday, September 9
Injury report
Marlins
Out: SP Sandy Alcantara (flexor tendon), OF/DH Jorge Soler (oblique), OF Avisail Garcia (hamstring), RP Huascar Brazoban (hamstring/hip)
Phillies
Day to day: SS Trea Turner (paternity list)
Starting pitchers
Johnny Cueto vs. Aaron Nola
Cueto hasn’t been sensational since coming off the IL to start the second half, but give the 37-year-old credit for chewing up innings and, for the most part, keeping the Marlins competitive in his starts. The righty allowed three or four runs in each of his last five starts, going between five and six frames in all five. The arsenal is a far cry from what it was during his All-Star campaigns — he’s down around 91-92 with his fastball these days — but his command is still as sharp as ever, and if he keeps his fastball up and his slider/changeup down, he can muster enough Cueto magic to navigate a lineup a couple of times.
Nola, meanwhile, continues to answer every step forward with another step back. It seemed like the righty was finally turning the corner when he closed August with two sensational starts (two runs, eight hits, 14 Ks in 14 innings), but he opened up September with a seven-run clunker in a road loss to the Brewers. Nola’s curveball remains as good as ever, but he’s gotten into far too much trouble due to shaky fastball command, with batters slugging .500 on his four-seamer (up from .356 last season). He’s shown flashes of the All-Star we’ve come to expect, but it’s hard to rely on him from week to week — and he’s given up nine runs (eight earned) on 17 hits in 11.2 innings over two starts against Miami this year.
Over/Under pick
This one is a tough call — which version of Nola will we get? — but in the end I’m taking the over. Philly will be motivated to come out swinging and get back in the win column, and this has been arguably the most dangerous lineup in baseball over the past month. If they can get to the 5-6 run mark — eminently doable — then I think Miami does just enough off Nola to push us past this number.
Pick: Over 9
Moneyline pick
Nola’s been skaky, but he’s still the better bet than Cueto here, especially considering how much more offensive firepower Philly brings to the table — and how tough they’ve been to beat at home of late.
Pick: Phillies -185
