Thursday, as it usually does, features a short slate of MLB baseball. I’ll give you some of my favorite baseball best bets for tonight that you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Pick: Dodgers team total over 4.5 runs -115
When I saw that Cade Povich was pitching for the Orioles, I assumed the team total for the Dodgers was going to be 5.5 runs. I was surprised to not only see 4.5 runs for the Dodgers but also that it was priced at -115. Povich has been a disaster for the Orioles, entering tonight with a 6.10 ERA and a 5.90 FIP. You can point out that Povich is due for some positive regression, as indicated by his 4.29 xERA but I don’t think this is the matchup where that comes. The Dodgers simply crush left-handed pitching, so tonight shouldn’t be much different.
Povich is throwing his fastball 43% of the time. That’s a pitch this Dodgers expected lineup crushes with a combined .338 wOBA and a .191 ISO. After that, he throws a decent amount of curveballs, doing so 24% of the time. He hasn’t found much success with that pitch, as opposing hitters have a whopping .408 wOBA against it. With Povich allowing at least three runs in three of his last four starts and a shaky bullpen behind him, I’m thinking the Dodgers should score at least five runs tonight.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
The Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr over 1.5 bases -115
Guerrero Jr. will be facing off against Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford. While Crawford has six pitches in his arsenal, his main focus on on his four seam fastball, which he throws 40% of the time. Guerrero is smashing these against righties, posting a .391 wOBA with a .208 ISO. If he gets cutters from Crawford, those numbers are even better with a .552 wOBA and a .286 ISO. There’s a very good chance he’ll get either of those, as Crawford combines to throw those 66% of the time. Guerrero has been unstoppable during the second-half of the season, slashing .413/.494/.926 with 29 extra base hits, which have accounted for 50% of his hits over this span. With Crawford pitching extremely inconsistent as of late, I really like Vlad to go over this number tonight at Fenway Park.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
