It is a strange transition year for the Big 12 with the faces of the conference, Texas and Oklahoma, both leaving for the SEC. However, that makes this a wide-open race for the conference title and a playoff berth. Here are some of the best ways to attack the futures market on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Big 12 Betting Preview
Similar to my ACC preview, I want to focus on the teams at the top of the conference with a real chance to make the College Football Playoff. So, I will be discussing the six teams with better than 10/1 odds to win the Big 12, along with Colorado because how do you not discuss Colorado?
Utah (+320)
Utah joined the conference from the Pac-12 this offseason and they are immediately favorites to win the Big 12. Cam Rising returns at QB as one of the most experienced players in all of college football. Head Coach Kyle Whittingham is also one of the best coaches in all of college football. This team has a lot of experience and has a roster with players that have won conference championships before, in 2021 and 2022. TE Carsen Ryan from UCLA, WR Taeshaun Lyons from Washington and WR Dorian Singer from USC all transferred in to immediately bolster the skill positions for Cam Rising.
Utah has one of the best home-field advantages in the country, one of the most experienced QBs in the country and one of the best head coaches in the country. In a conference that is full of uncertainty, they are solid as a rock. It is hard to imagine them not, at the very least, making the conference championship game. I see the Utes winning at least ten games and getting themselves into the College Football Playoff as Big 12 champions.
Best Bet: Utah to make the playoff (+220)
Kansas State (+390)
Kansas State is one of the most intriguing teams in the country. Their quarterback of the past two seasons, Will Howard, transferred to Ohio State. From the outside, one would assume Howard left Kansas State so he could compete for a National Championship with Ohio State. That is true as things worked out great for Howard but people around the Kansas State program will tell you that Will Howard left because he would not have won the starting QB job this offseason.
Avery Johnson is the young phenom quarterback who has people in Manhattan absolutely buzzing. He started in the Pop-Tarts Bowl last season and showed flashes of what he can do. He also had an absurd game last season against Texas Tech where he rushed for five touchdowns, despite not even playing the whole game. Outside of Johnson, Chris Klieman has built an amazing program at Kansas State. This team absolutely has what it takes to get to the Big 12 Championship Game and make the College Football Playoff.
Unfortunately, the hype may just be a season early on Johnson and Kansas State. I don’t find any value in their current price to win the conference or make the playoffs. However, I can’t wait to watch Johnson on a weekly basis and if he is who we think he is, he could be a top Heisman candidate next season.
Oklahoma State (+750)
Oklahoma State is another one of the most consistent programs in the country. Mike Gundy just keeps churning out winning seasons and he will certainly want to take advantage of the departure of Oklahoma and Texas. QB Alan Bowman returns as one of the oldest players in college football, along with Heisman contender RB Ollie Gordon.
This team really struggled on the defensive side of the ball last season. They return a lot of last year’s team so early in the season it will be very telling if those players have improved as a unit or if they brought back a group of defenders that just aren’t good enough. I am not a believer in Alan Bowman as a quarterback and I still can’t trust this Oklahoma State defense. There is a chance everything clicks because Gundy is such a great coach but I won’t be betting any futures on this team.
UCF (+900)
UCF is one of the teams I am most excited to watch this season. Gus Malzahn led this team from the Group of Five to the Big 12 last year and they adjusted the best of all the new teams. Malzahn then made some huge moves this offseason to get this team to the next level. In the transfer portal, he secured QB KJ Jefferson from Arkansas and RB Peny Boone from Toledo who will perfectly complement Malzahn’s offense, along with RB RJ Harvery who returns from last year’s team.
This team went 6-6 last year but it’s important to look at how close they were to being a nine or ten-win team. They lost by one to Baylor in a game where they blew a big 4th quarter lead, they lost by two to Oklahoma on the road where they also blew a 4th quarter lead and they lost by one against Texas Tech because of a blocked extra point in the fourth quarter. This team had no experience at the Big 12 level and now they have a full season of learning moments from those games.
Last year, they also had a quarterback in John Rhys Plumlee who was not a serious passer. KJ Jefferson comes in as a quarterback that perfectly fits the mold of Cam Newton, who Malzahn won a National Championship with as Auburn’s offensive coordinator. The sky is the limit for this team as they only face two teams from the preseason top-25, Utah and Arizona, and they get both of those games at home. This team has a really good shot to make the conference championship game and I am betting on them to do just that.
Best Bet: UCF to make the Big 12 Championship Game (+450)
Kansas (+950)
Kansas football being good is great for the sport. Lance Leipold was a home run of a hire for the Jayhawks and he has built this team into a real winner. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is one of the most electric players in all of college football and I ranked him 9th in my college football QB rankings. The only issue with Daniels is his ability to stay on the field. He only played three games last season before getting a season-ending injury and he missed about a month in the 2022 season.
Last year, Kansas managed without Jalon Daniels because they had a really good backup in Jason Bean. Bean graduated in the spring, leaving redshirt freshman Cole Ballard as the backup. Ballard is really inexperienced and plays a vastly different style than Daniels. If Daniels gets hurt, I can’t trust Ballard, and unfortunately, I can’t trust Daniels not to get hurt. If Daniels and RB Devin Neal are both healthy then this is one of the most exciting offenses in the country, but I can’t depend on Daniels to stay healthy.
Iowa State (+950)
Iowa State is another team that I am betting on this offseason. The program was in turmoil last summer when their starting QB Hunter Dekkers got suspended for gambling violations. Head Coach Matt Campbell immediately had to turn to Rocco Becht at quarterback just days before their season opener. Becht jumped at the opportunity and had a great season, only improving as the season went on. Now Becht has a full season of experience and an offseason as the starting quarterback.
Matt Campbell is one of the best coaches in the country and his team will be prepared every week. This team is really tough defensively and if Becht can continue to improve, this team is capable of getting to the Big 12 Championship Game. They play Kansas State at home in the final game of the season in a game that could decide which of those teams make the Big 12 Championship Game. With the Cyclones at home, I would back them to win that game and get to the title game. So, just like with UCF, I am betting on that to happen.
Best Bet: Iowa State to make the Big 12 Championship Game (+450)
Colorado (+2800)
Colorado is one of the most polarizing teams in the country. Deion Sanders brings a lot of attention to his program, some good, some bad. One thing is for sure, QB Shedeur Sanders and WR/DB Travis Hunter are two of the most talented players in the country. However, last year was evidence that you can’t depend on a handful of stars to carry your team. When Hunter got hurt last season and missed several games, there was a clear drop-off in Colorado’s performances.
This is also concerning because Colorado has major problems on the offensive line. Sanders made it through all of last season without suffering an injury but he does take a troubling amount of hits due to the offensive line issues. Similarly to last season, Colorado should be strong early in the season when healthy but where they get into trouble is when they need to start going to their depth. They have an exciting offense that should always put up points but their defense and offensive line will really struggle if they need to start dipping into their second and third string.
Colorado is a team I can’t trust to make it through the whole season and unfortunately they have positioned themselves to be every team’s “Super Bowl.” Nobody is going to overlook Colorado and every coach is going to want to beat the Buffaloes. Colorado also draws a pretty tough Big 12 schedule and has a difficult out-of-conference game against North Dakota State and on the road against Nebraska. The Buffaloes are going to really struggle to get to six wins, even if their stars remain healthy.
Best Bet: Colorado u5.5 wins (+120)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
