The MLB Rookie of the Year is one of the only awards up for grabs. The MVP in both leagues is seemingly wrapped up, as Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have huge leads over the field. The Cy Award is also not much of a race, as Tarik Skubal is running away in the American League, while Chris Sale is a solid -450 in the National League. The only real race left is the National League Rookie of the Year. Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill are -130 and +100 respectively.
But, what if I told you that I disagree with the American League Rookie of the Year odds? Currently, Colton Cowser is -550 to take down this award. That’s a big favorite! I simply don’t get it though. Sure, one can argue the American League isn’t exactly flushed with great rookie players this year. Talent-wise, we have great players like Jackson Holliday, Wyatt Langford, and Austin Wells, to name a few. But one name I can’t take my eye off is Wilyer Abreu of the Boston Red Sox. His numbers are VERY similar to Cowser, yet, he’s +2000. Are these two players that far off? Let’s look more.
Colton Cowser vs. Wilyer Abreu
When doing a player comparison, the best way to view it is from Stathead.com. From there, you can enter two (or more) players, choose the season and it’ll give you a side-by-side comparison of them. So, let’s take a look at Cowser and Abreu as of August 24th.
I think we can all see that they’re quite similar. What sticks out to me, is Abreu is better or slightly behind Cowser in several stats, despite playing 23 fewer games and logging 96 fewer plate appearances. Abreu is slightly ahead in WAR and 77 points higher in OPS, which I think is important. The similarity between the two isn’t all that much, which is why I think it’s interesting that Coswer is -550 and Abreu is +2000.
Cowser does have the advantage of being on a team that is set for a playoff run. Even with the Orioles struggling in August, they’re only 0.5 games back in the AL East and have a 3-game lead in the Wild Card. Cowser also plays when facing a left-handed pitcher, while Abreu usually takes a sweat. When facing a lefty, however, Cowser will drop from his leadoff spot, down to either the sixth or seventh spot. Against lefties, Cowser is slashing .248/.303/.404 with a .706 OPS and a .307 wOBA. Is sitting against lefties going to hurt Abreu in the end? We shall see, but, I think Abreu’s overall offensive output garners enough attention at +2000.
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