We’re kicking off the weekend with a 13-game slate of baseball, starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. I’ll give you some of my favorite baseball best bets for tonight that you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
The Pick: New York Mets Team Total over 4.5 runs -125
The Mets offense has been in a roll lately, posting 19 runs in three games against the Oakland Athletics. They have a very strong chance of making that happen tonight against the Marlins and Roddery Munoz. The Marlins starter has been worse than advertised, as he currently owns a 5.67 ERA but an xERA of 6.33. He strikeouts less than a batter per inning (7.4 K/9) and exhibits shaky control (4.2 BB/9). Left-handed bats have also been a huge issue for him, as he owns a .434 wOBA with an 8.61 FIP and 13 of the 21 home runs he’s allowed. Four of the first six hitters in the Mets lineup should be hitting from the left-side, which should give Munoz plenty of trouble. It won’t get much better for the Marlins once Munoz departs, as the Marlins bullpen has combined for a 5.85 ERA through 52.1 innings in August. This certainly feels like a good spot to back the Mets team total tonight, making this one of my favorite MLB bets tonight.
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
The Pick: Spencer Arrighetti to record a win +150
The Astros are huge favorites tonight against the White Sox, currently sitting at -250 on the moneyline as I write this late this morning. One way around that, is to take Arrighetti to record the win at +150. Of course, the bullpen needs to do it’s job to allow this to cash, but we’re talking about one of the worst offenses in the league. Through 11 games this month, the White Sox are slashing .235/.283/.389 while scoring 41 total runs. That’s an average of just 3.7 per game.
On the surface, the numbers for Arrighetti are ugly. A 5.14 ERA isn’t a pretty sight to see! However, his xERA of 3.98 says a lot and postive regression is coming. I think we’re seeing that currently, especially since the All-Star break. Over that span, he’s thrown 25 innings and has a 3.60 ERA with a .269 wOBA and a 12.9 K/9. He throws a fastball a lot, doing so almost 43% of the time. The White Sox expected lineup for tonight has a combined .301 wOBA with a .173 ISO and a 26.5% K%. If he can do what most pitchers have done to this White Sox offense, I think he’ll be in a great position to earn the win tonight in Houston.
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Game total over 11.5 runs -102
Your typical huge game total at Coors Field but this is one I do like to go over. The pitching matchup for this game is awful and I’d expect a lot of offense to be had.
First, for the Padres, we have Matt Waldron. He’s been a bit better than his 4.00 ERA indicates with his xERA of 3.63, but this is a really tough spot for him. He just got torched by the MARLINS for five runs on five hits through 4.1 innings. That’s the second time in three starts he’s allowed five runs. To his credit, he has pitched well against the Rockies in Coors Field, holding them to just one run back in April. However, the second-half of the season has not been kind to Waldron, who has allowed 15 runs on 22 hits through 26 innings.
On the opposing side will be Cal Quantrill. He, like Waldron, is also in the midst of a tough second-half. Quantrill has a 6.75 ERA over 20 innings, allowing 16 runs on 25 hits. The Padres have been one of the best offenses in the league during the second-half of the season, hitting a combined .283/.340/.459 while averaging 5.8 runs per game. Putting them in an environment like Coors Field is never a bad thing.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
