The Monday, August 12 DraftKings fantasy baseball slate features eight games. Get a head start on the competition by checking out the best MLB DFS stud and value picks for each position.
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PITCHER
Stud
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies ($8,600) — The former Diamondbacks No. 2 Prospect (MLB Prospect No. 51) earned the call-up in 2023 by posting double-digit strikeout rates and low walk rates at every level of the minors. He struggled as a rookie, as all prospects do. He’s taken a step forward in his second season (3.92 ERA). Pfaadt’s last three starts haven’t been sharp, but he’s posted a 2.66 ERA since June 30. Over that seven-game span, he has an 8.4 K/9, 1.1 BB/9 and a 49.1% ground ball rate. Even if the most recent games do not look great, Pfaadt held hitters to under a 20% hard contact rate in his last two starts. This might seem like a high price for the “Fat Man,” but the matchup influences his salary. The Rockies have a 26% K rate, .153 ISO, .306 wOBA and 81 wRC+ against right-hand pitching and are cold over their last seven games — 28% K rate, .153 ISO, .320 wOBA and 90 wRC+.
Value
Bowden Francis, Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels ($5,800) — There’s not a lot of value on the board. Francis was a starter in the minors who earned a big league promotion by striking out nearly double-digit hitters during his minor league career (9.6 K/9). Francis started 2024 as a starter. He was quickly moved to the pen. After solid relief work, Francis rejoined the rotation in August. He held the Orioles to three runs (two home runs) through 5 2/3 innings in his first start. His next start (Aug 7) was a rematch. The Orioles managed three hits (two earned runs) and struck out seven times in five innings (16% swinging strike rate). The Angels have a 23% K rate, .140 ISO, .298 wOBA and 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Their power is down over the last seven games (.132 ISO), so Francis’ small home run problem is smaller on Monday’s slate.
INFIELD
Stud
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox ($5,400) — This could be the most popular pick on Monday’s slate. Brayan Bello ($7,900) allows a .370 wOBA, 2.0 HR/9 and a 4.57 xFIP to left-handed hitters. Seager has a .266 wOBA, .395 ISO and 156 wRC+ vs. RHP.
Stud
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels ($5,700) — Vlady likes to party, and it’s been party time over the last seven games (.353 ISO and .570 wOBA). The party isn’t over. Monday’s matchup should bring more cake and balloons. There will even be a clown, and he’s on the mound. Davis Daniel ($7,200) has great MILB numbers, and his advanced metrics through five MLB starts look good. The results differ — 6.04 ERA, .404 wOBA and 1.7 HR/9 against right-handed hitters.
Value
Josh Smith, Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox ($3,800) — This is the discounted version of the Corey Seager pick. Smith should benefit from Bello’s splits. He’s also heating up, with four hits in the last two games.
Value
Adrian Del Castillo, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies ($2,100) — There is punting at catcher and paying down. This isn’t a punt. Del Castillo broke out at Triple-A this season (.289 ISO and .428 wOBA in 100 games). He made his MLB Debut on August 7. In three starts, he’s scored 9, 22 and 17 DKFP.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox ($6,900) — Judge has 41 home runs and 105 RBIs. August just started. He breaks the bank, but he should break the White Sox. Ky Bush ($5,000) posted an 8.44 xFIP in his first MLB start on August 5. Judge hits right-handed and left-handed pitching equally. Lefties tend to struggle with right-handed hitters. Everyone struggles with Judge.
Stud
Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers ($5,900) — Tyler Mahle ($6,800) is back, but is he back to form? Mahle allowed one run in five innings against Houston on August 6. He struck out one. That’s a lot of batted-ball events. Duran has a .268 ISO, .388 wOBA and 148 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
***editors note: Jarren Duran has been suspended for two games, effective immediately.
Value
Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals ($4,100) — Brady Singer ($8,400) is a good pitcher (3.03 ERA), but he’s not without flaws — .372 wOBA and 1.5 HR/9 against left-handed batters. Wallner has a .441 wOBA, .370 ISO and 192 wRC+ in 99 PA vs. RHP.
Value
Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies ($3,900) — The matchup works. Cal Quantrill ($5,300) allows a .342 wOBA and 40% hard contact to left-handed hitters. McCarthy works. He’s one of the hottest hitters in baseball — .474 ISO and .527 wOBA over the last seven games.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
