After a second straight dramatic walk-off win on Saturday night, the Cincinnati Reds (71-67) are in position to take three of four from the Chicago Cubs (72-64) in this crucial set between NL Central rivals. First pitch of Sunday’s finale from Great American Ball Park is set for 12:10 p.m. ET. Chicago will send righty Jameson Taillon (7-9, 5.62 ERA) to the mound, while Cincy will call Carson Spiers up for his MLB debut after Brandon Williamson was scratched due to testing positive for COVID-19.
Consecutive losses have cut the Cubs’ lead over the Giants and Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card spot to just two games, with the Reds lurking just a game behind those two in the loss column. Chicago enters as -155 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Cincy at +130. The run total is set at 10.5.
Cubs-Reds picks: Sunday, September 3
Injury report
Cubs
Out: SP Marcus Stroman (ribs), RP Michael Fulmer (forearm)
Reds
Out: SP Hunter Greene (covid), RP Alex Young (hamstring), C Curt Casali (foot), 1B Joey Votto (shoulder), 2B Kevin Newman (oblique), 2B Jonathan India (foot), SS Matt McClain (oblique)
Starting pitchers
Jameson Taillon vs. Carson Spiers
Taillon seemed to be turning a corner in July, but he followed that up with a dreadful month of August, posting a 6.06 ERA over six starts. The righty began the month by allowing two runs on seven hits over five innings against these same Reds, but things came unravelled from there, with at least four earned in each of his last four outings. A lack of an answer for left-handed hitters has really cost him, as he’s allowed a .280/.352/.539 slash line without the platoon advantage this year.
Both Williamson and Ben Lively are out due to health and safety protocols, forcing the Reds to turn to Spiers — an undrafted righty out of Clemson with just 17 innings above Double-A — in a pivotal game for their NL Wild Card hopes. The 23-year-old has pitched fairly well at Double-A this season, with a 3.69 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 83 innings, but he got lit up in his brief exposure to Triple-A last season (7.41 ERA, 1.882 WHIP).
Over/Under pick
This has been a very offensively challenged series, with the teams scoring just eight runs combined over the last two games. Still, it’s hard not to predict something of a slugfest today: Spiers is totally unproven at this level and likely in over his head, while the Reds have the kind of impact lefty bats to make Taillon pay.
Pick: Over 10.5
Moneyline pick
Spiers is simply too much of an unknown to back Cincinnati in this spot; maybe the element of surprise benefits him in some way, but we don’t have much evidence that he’s a Major League-caliber arm just yet. If Taillon can just hold his own, the Cubs should give him enough run support to get a win.
Pick: Cubs -155
