I was only on two MLB bets for yesterday but it was nice to see them both cash last night. Let’s take a look at what MLB bets I’m on for today that you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians
The Pick: Orioles team total over 2.5 runs through first five innings -105
Carlos Carrasco simply isn’t the pitcher he once was. It’s been a real struggle from him, especially lately. Over his last two starts against the Phillies and Tigers, he’s allowed 12 earned runs on 15 hits, including three home runs through nine innings. The Orioles aren’t going to be an easy task tonight, which has me on their team total through the first five innings. I’m respecting how good the Guardians bullpen has been since the All-Star break concluded, as they’ve posted a stellar 1.42 ERA with a 3.68 FIP through 50.2 innings. So with this play, I’m focusing on Carrasco’s start. He hasn’t pitched more than 5.1 innings in four straight starts, so if he’s out of this game before the five innings are over, there is a good chance the Orioles have gone over their team total already. I think the Orioles have officially broken out of their recent slump, as they’ve averaged 6.8 runs over their last five games.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Yankees team total over 2.5 runs through first five innings -110
This game has weather concerns so check the latest forecast before placing your bet.
Another early offensive outburst we could see tonight is the Yankees against Kevin Gausman. They’ve had his number this season and I don’t imagine tonight being any different. This will be the fourth time that Gusman will pitch against this team and they’ve tagged him for 13 runs on 15 hits with 10 walks and 13 strikeouts through 10.2 innings. That amounts to a 10.97 ERA with a 7.47 FIP and a .454 wOBA. Gausman is throwing a ton of fastballs, doing so at a rate of nearly 59%. Against that pitch, the Yankees expected lineup has a combined .392 wOBA with a .272 ISO. Even with Gausman coming off a solid nine inning start against the Rangers, I think the Yankees do a number on him again tonight.
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
The Pick: Jose Urena under 3.5 strikeouts -110
Urena pitching well is not something I had on my bingo card, ever. But, to his credit, he comes into today with a 3.07 ERA with an xERA of 3.79. Despite that, the strikeout numbers remain low, as they usually do. Through 76.1 innings he has a 6.2 K/9, which is well under the mark of averaging at least one per inning. I don’t expect him to go very deep in this game, as he’s making a spot start for the Rangers. I think you can tab him for MAYBE four innings, and even that might be too much. With this said, I don’t think he’s going to earn four strikeouts in this matchup against the Red Sox. They’re not a big strikeout club to begin with and Urena generates contact. He throws a sinker nearly half of the time he’s on the mound along with a slider. So give me under 3.5 strikeouts for Urena tonight.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
