The Los Angeles Dodgers remain among the most active contenders in the days leading up to the 2023 trade deadline. A day after acquiring infielder Amed Rosario from the Cleveland Guardians, L.A. bolstered its pitching staff by striking a deal with the Chicago White Sox for starter Lance Lynn and reliever (and former Dodger) Joe Kelly. In return, outfielder Trayce Thompson and Minor League pitchers Nick Nastrini and Jordan Leasure are headed to the South Side.
For the Dodgers, the deal offers a shot in the arm to a rotation that’s dealt with myriad injuries over the last few months — and a bet that they can get Lynn back on track after a rough first few months of 2023. For Chicago, the teardown continues apace, as this is their second trade of a big-name starter already this week after the deal that sent Lucas Giolito to the Angels. There’s a lot to break down here, so let’s get to it.
Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly trade grades
Dodgers: B
The Dodgers entered deadline season with a clear need at the back end of their rotation, one that only became clearer after they shipped Noah Syndergaard to Cleveland. With Clayton Kershaw still on the shelf with a shoulder injury, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin struggling and Dustin May out for the season and rookie Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan bumping up against innings limits, L.A. needed to come away from the next few days with at least one starter. Lynn certainly checks that box, and it wasn’t too long ago that he was among the game’s best: From 2019 to 2021, he pitched to a 146 ERA+ and 10.2 K/9.
Of course, if he’d put up those numbers this season, this return would’ve been a lot bigger. Lynn has given up more earned runs and home runs than any other pitcher in baseball in 2023, which is obviously not what you want. The quality of his stuff isn’t the problem: He’s still racking up plenty of strikeouts, and he’s had moments of recent brilliance (17 Ks against the Seattle Mariners, 11 Ks in six one-run innings against the Toronto Blue Jays). He just catches the middle of the plate way too often, and when he does, very bad things happen. If there’s a team who can get Lynn right, though, it’s probably the Dodgers, and a change of scenery and pitch mix could be just what the big righty needs.
Kelly, meanwhile … well, the Dodgers are all too familiar with what he brings to the table. If relievers are the embodiment of baseball’s essential unpredictability and fickleness, then Kelly is the ur-reliever. His 4.97 ERA doesn’t matter. His 12.7 K/9 doesn’t matter. When he has his stuff, he’s unhittable. When he doesn’t, Los Angeles knows exactly what can happen. Still, this team could use another power arm behind Brusdar Graterol and Evan Phillips, and Kelly fits that bill as much as anyone.
White Sox: B+
For two pitchers with substantially below-average ERAs, this represents a pretty solid return for Chicago. Thompson has hit .216/.304/.428 over parts of seven seasons in L.A., crushing lefties while struggling against righties, while Leasure has excelled as a closer at Double-A and profiles as a future high-leverage relief arm. The 23-year-old Nastrini, however, is the headliner, and he’s a very promising one: The righty has seen his stuff improve by leaps and bounds since being drafted by L.A. in the fourth round back in 2021 and was the team’s No. 9 prospect per MLB Pipeline. He still struggles with his command, with a 4.5 BB/9 and 4.03 ERA. If he can throw strikes consistently, though, he has legit strikeout stuff (10.4 K/9) and a mid-rotation profile. That’s good work for two rentals who’ve been disappointing so far this year.
