Lefty Julio Urias (5-4, 4.39 ERA) makes his long-awaited return from the IL for the Dodgers, while the Royals roll with young fellow southpaw Daniel Lynch (1-3, 3.96).
The Dodgers enter as heavy -225 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Royals checking in at +190. The run total is set at 9.5.
Dodgers-Royals picks: Saturday, July 1st
Injury report
Dodgers
Day to day: SP Clayton Kershaw (shoulder)
Out: UTIL Chris Taylor (knee), RP Shelby Miller (neck), SP Noah Syndergaard (finger), RP Tyler Cyr (shoulder), OF Trayce Thompson (oblique)
Royals
Out: SP Brad Keller (shoulder), 2B Michael Massey (finger), OF Matt Beaty (concussion), RP Josh Staumont (neck), RP Josh Taylor (shoulder), SP/RP Ryan Yarbrough (head)
Starting pitchers
Julio Urias vs. Daniel Lynch
Urias will be making his first start since May 18 due to a hamstring strain. Last year’s third-place finisher in NL Cy Young voting was off to a bumpy start, including getting roughed up for six runs in just three innings by the St. Louis Cardinals in his last outing before the injury, but he’s still among the steadiest arms in the game. His slider and changeup are among the best of any starter when he’s on, and he hardly walks anyone — the lefty is going to change speeds, change locations, hit his spots and keep hitters constantly guessing. He’s likely to be on something of a pitch count after making just one rehab start.
There haven’t been many bright spots this year for the Royals, but Lynch has been one, as the former first-round pick has bounced back from a nightmare 2022 season with some solid play so far this year. Outside of one blow-up last month in Cincinnati, the lefty has gone at least five innings while allowing three runs or fewer in every other start. He’s been playing his best ball of late, allowing just one run on seven total hits across 13 innings in his last two outings against the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays.
Over/Under pick
Friday’s game ended in a 9-3 final, but while the Dodgers have busted out at the plate of late, I’m going with the under here — largely because I just don’t trust the Royals to hold up their end of the bargain. K.C. has possibly the worst lineup in baseball after the season-ending injury to Vinnie Pasquantino, and with Urias keeping them in check, that puts a lot of pressure on Los Angeles if we’re going to hit this over. Lynch’s recent form has me thinking we’re headed for something like a 6-2 final.
Pick: Over 9.5
Moneyline pick
We don’t quite know how effective Urias will be, or how deep he’ll go into this game, but don’t overthink it: The lefty looked just fine in his one Minor League start, and the Dodgers have exponentially more firepower at the plate. Even if Lynch manages to hold his own against this fearsome L.A. lineup, it’s hard to see how the Royals will score enough runs — especially with Aroldis Chapman now off to the Texas Rangers.
Pick: Dodgers
