In-state bragging rights? Check. AL West supremacy? Check. There’s a lot on the line as the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers kick off a big weekend series in Arlington on Friday night, with first pitch set for 8:05 p.m. ET from Globe Life Park. Rookie Ronel Blanco (1-0, 4.63 ERA) will get the ball for Houston, while Texas hopes righty Jon Gray (6-3, 2.89) can continue his breakout season.
The Rangers enter as -170 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Astros at +145. The run total is set at 9.
Astros-Rangers picks: Friday, June 30
Injury report
Astros
Out: DH/OF Yordan Alvarez (oblique), DH/OF Michael Brantley (shoulder), SP Jose Urquidy (shoulder)
Rangers
Out: UTIL Brad Miller (oblique), RP Jose Leclerc (ankle),
Starting pitchers
Ronel Blanco vs. Jon Gray
Injuries to Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy — plus a hot start at Triple-A — gave Blanco his shot in Houston’s rotation, and for the most part, the rookie has kept his team competitive through his first four starts. The righty got roughed up by the Cincinnati Reds a couple of weeks ago (though really, who hasn’t recently), but outside of that, he’s gone at least 5.1 innings while allowing two or three runs per outing. He doesn’t have the deepest arsenal, throwing his fastball and slider nearly 90% of the time, but the breaking ball has been incredibly successful so far — with a .203 average against and a 47.1% whiff rate. It’s hard to make a living as a Major League starter with just one great pitch, but he’s made it work to this point.
Speaking of great sliders, Gray’s has been even more unhittable so far this year, with a .141 average against and a 40% whiff rate. The righty had long flashed immense potential, but injuries (and pitching in Coors Field) held him back. His second season in Texas has been excellent so far, as he’s pitched to a sparkling 1.97 ERA over eight starts dating back to May 8. He battled a blister issue earlier this month, but he looked perfectly healthy while holding the New York Yankees to one run on three hits over five innings last time out.
Over/Under pick
These are two teams that are swinging the bat very well of late: Texas ranks second in baseball in wRC+ in the month of June, while Houston is fifth. The Astros have cleared this total in eight of their last 11 games, and while Gray has been very good on the mound for the Rangers, his 4.19 expected ERA suggests that he’s gotten a bit lucky during this hot stretch. Blanco will have a tough time navigating this Texas lineup with such a limited repertoire, and I expect both of these teams to put up a handful of runs on Friday night.
Pick: Over 9
Moneyline pick
The Rangers have been scuffling a bit of late, dropping two of three against the New York Yankees last weekend before settling for a split of a four-game set with the Detroit Tigers. Blanco has found ways to survive against tough offenses so far in his young career, while Gray isn’t as imposing as his top-line numbers suggest. These are two pretty evenly matched teams right now, so why not take the one getting much better odds?
Pick: Astros
