NFL RB Touch Projections — Week 9 MNF: Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

In fantasy football, running back is arguably the most important position on the field. At the very least, good RBs are the hardest commodity to come by in most formats, and finding ones with any value in DFS is a chore.

With all that in mind, I’m here help.

Let’s break down some touch and target projections for each backfield in tonight’s Monday Night Football tilt between the Buffalo Bills and the Minnesota Vikings.

RB Touch Projections for Bills vs. Vikings

Buffalo Bills

Generated November 08, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

– Proj Car / Proj Tgt — Projected rushing attempts and receiving targets. Game script adjusts the split: favored teams get up to 12% more carries, underdogs get up to 15% more targets.

– Projections — Built from blended per-game rates (15% 2025 / 85% 2026), adjusted for matchup, game spread, DK team totals, and depth chart role. Out/IR players excluded with touches redistributed. Q/D volume reductions apply Fri-Sun only (after official designations).

There was a brief moment in Week 8’s victory over the Ravens where it appeared that James Cook might be hurt. The Bills’ bell cow took a hard hit and was evaluated for a head injury on the sideline, but he was eventually cleared and able to return to the game. Heck, Cook wasn’t even listed on Buffalo’s injury report at any point during the lead-up to Monday Night Football. He’s fine and ready to lead the Bills’ backfield once again.

Despite exiting that contest, Cook still finished with 20-plus rushing attempts for the fifth time in Buffalo’s seven games this season. He also found the end zone, something he’s been able to do six straight weeks. That last point is key. No back is vultured more often by the goal line than Cook, as he has to share red zone carries with Josh Allen, who at just 30-years-old, already holds the NFL record for most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (88). Thankfully, the Bills tend to score enough to have everyone get their chance at glory.

Minnesota Vikings

Generated November 08, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET

– Proj Car / Proj Tgt — Projected rushing attempts and receiving targets. Game script adjusts the split: favored teams get up to 12% more carries, underdogs get up to 15% more targets.

– Projections — Built from blended per-game rates (15% 2025 / 85% 2026), adjusted for matchup, game spread, DK team totals, and depth chart role. Out/IR players excluded with touches redistributed. Q/D volume reductions apply Fri-Sun only (after official designations).

The first thing we need to remember is that Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason have only both been active for three games so far this season, and that in one of those contests, the former left early due to a knee injury. Needless to say, the sample size of this committee in 2026 is quite small.

With that said, I feel like these projections are slightly off. In every game that both Jones and Mason have played together this season, it’s been Mason who has finished with more rushing attempts. That includes Week 1’s victory over the Packers, which is likely the cleanest script we have for what a Jones and Mason split looks like in an ideal game script. Jones played 46.2% of the team’s offensive snaps, while Mason logged a 44.6% rate. Both received double-digit rushing attempts, including exactly four red zone carries. Both also found the end zone. If tonight’s contest can stay relatively neutral, I could definitely see Jones and Mason each garnering somewhere between 10-13 carries.

The big differentiator in my opinion will be the involvement in the passing attack. The Bills tend to play with a lead, and that’s translated into opponents registering a microscopic 33.0% run rate over their last three games. As such, no defense has allowed opposing RBs to be as featured as pass catchers. Buffalo enters Monday Night Football surrendering the most RB targets per game (8.7) and the second-most RB receptions per game (6.0). In this duo, that’s a huge advantage for Jones. In fact, Mason has yet to even record a single reception this season.