Best Aaron Jones prop bet for Vikings vs. Bills on Monday 11/9/26

Week 9 of the NFL season concludes with a seemingly stellar matchup as an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. The Minnesota Vikings’ defense is the best in football, but keeping up with the Buffalo Bills’ elite offense won’t be an easy task, either. With that in mind, Skol Nation will need every playmaker to be at their best, including halfback Aaron Jones.

Here are the best Aaron Jones prop bets for Vikings vs. Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 9.

Best Aaron Jones prop bet for Vikings vs. Bills

One of the league’s most senior running backs, Aaron Jones is still doing it in his age-31 season. The veteran carried the load for the Vikings while backfield mate Jordan Mason was out, recording a pair of games with 100+ rushing yards before his teammate returned a couple of weeks ago. All in all, he’s run for 458 yards and two touchdowns on 110 carries – averaging 4.2 YPC – also catching 15 passes for 90 yards through the air.

Tonight, Minnesota will need every bit of its offense to step up in order to keep up with an elite Buffalo attack helmed by Josh Allen. The good news for Jones is that the Bills’ defense isn’t a particularly strong one, but what do the numbers tell us about what to expect?

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Jones’ player prop bet lines are set at O/U 31.5 rushing yards and 8.5 rush attempts, plus 1.5 receptions and 10.5 receiving yards. He holds +290 odds to score an anytime touchdown. The Vikings are also a 3.5-point underdog at home with the total set at 45.5 combined points.

Jones isn’t the top back in the Vikings’ backfield anymore, at least not since Mason returned from injury in Week 7. These two running backs have shared the backfield for three games. When both have been healthy, Mason leads them with 38 total rush attempts to 25 for Jones. Jones has seen eight and five carries in his last two games, being out-carried in both as Mason took 15 and eight rush attempts.

Minnesota will likely be looking to keep the ball out of Allen’s hands and run the clock for as long as possible when on offense. Controlling the pace of play will prove crucial if the Vikings are to compete tonight, but even still, the under on rush attempts for Jones still makes sense as one of the top prop bets here. The veteran has been playing through an MCL issue for most of the campaign and hasn’t topped eight carries in either of the two contests since Mason returned. Moreover, the concerns that the Vikings wind up playing from behind in a negative game script don’t feel unfounded, especially since Buffalo has the highest-scoring offense in the NFL. In such a case, rushing volume would almost certainly come off the table with Carson Wentz needing to throw in order to keep up.

The Bills’ defense is pedestrian against the run, ranking 15th in rushing success rate and 21st in EPA/rush allowed. However, Jones is yet to go over tonight’s line of 31.5 rushing yards in either game since Mason came back. With so many variables involved here, it’s probably best to just track the volume rather than production for Jones and look for value where his workload is concerned – leading us right back to the under on 8.5 rush attempts.

Best Bet: Aaron Jones under 8.5 rush attempts (-112)

Click the odds of this bet to tail!